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Posted at 2:00 PM EST. 

#317 Fresno State +100 over SAN DIEGO STATE

Joan C. Edwards Stadium, Huntington, West Virginia

9:30 PM EST. The Aztecs have pedigree and somewhat of a market presence, not to mention a 7-2 overall record this year to go along with a well known HC in Rocky Long. What the Aztecs don’t have is the superior team here and if they beat the superior Bulldogs in this one, it’ll very likely be because of in-game variances going their way. The Aztecs are 7-2 because of a weak schedule. Their schedule is so weak that it should be concerning for anyone looking to get behind them here that they’re not 9-0. SDSU was 17-point favorite over Nevada last week and lost outright. They scored 13 points. Its other loss was against Utah State. SDSU’s best win this year came against whom? UCLA? Wyoming? Colorado State? Pick anyone and it’s not that impressive. The Aztecs scratch and claw for every point they manage to score and still remain one of the lowest scoring teams in the entire country. Remember, those weak outputs came against weak competition. The Aztecs second loss of the season last week means they’re going to another meaningless Bowl game so in terms of motivation, we doubt it’ll be sky high.

Fresno State is just 4-5 so they have some work to do to become Bowl eligible. A win here and they are almost assured of going bowling because its last two games are against weak competition. The point is, FSU figures to be motivated. The Bulldogs have played a more difficult schedule. They opened the year with back-to-back losses to USC (31-23) and Minnesota (38-35). They lost by one score in each so they were close to being 2-0 instead of 0-2. They also hung 56 on Nevada when SDSU hung 20 on the Rebels. The market trusts that SDSU is the superior team here but they’re not. The Aztecs cannot trade punches with Fresno nor do they have the ability to come back should they fall behind by 10 or 14. The smart play and the value play is all on this tiny underdog and we’re on it.

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