Pinnacle -4 -106 Bet365 -4 -110 SportsInteraction -4 -110 5DIMES -4 -110 888Sport -4 -110

Posted at 1:30 PM EST.

PITT -4 -106 over North Carolina

Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA

8:00 PM EST. In the shadows of the Steelers playing in Cleveland, the city’s college team will be hosting the Tar Heels at Heinz Field. UNC is only one game behind Virginia in the loss column, but since the Hoos have just one ACC game remaining, and they beat North Carolina two weeks ago, the Heels have been eliminated from the division race. At 4-5 and coming off consecutive nine-loss seasons, gaining bowl eligibility would be a noble accomplishment and they can reach that goal with two more victories. The Tar Heels play Mercer next week, which is an almost guaranteed win so they’ll have to win tonight or their final game against rival N.C. State.

Pitt is 6-3 but its only path to a division title is to win out and hope that Virginia Tech can beat Virginia on Thanksgiving weekend but that’s just the tale of the tape that explains that motivation for both squads should not be an issue. They both have something to play for but here is what you’re going to read or hear about regarding this matchup; Despite Carolina’s woes in recent years, the Heels have dominated this series. Since Pitt joined the ACC, UNC has won six in a row with the last Pitt win occurring in the Meineke Car Care Bowl in 2009 when the Panthers were members of the Big East. That’s just another useless, garbage trend that the market eats up.

You may also be made aware that both teams have been involved in many close games this year. In fact, eight of North Carolina’s nine games have been decided by one score. Eight of Pittsburgh’s nine games have been decided by 10 points or fewer with six of those being one-score games. That narrative has the market leaning towards this dog, as the price drop would attest to (was -4½ on Tuesday). Don’t be fooled by any of it.

The Panthers defensive line v UNC’s weak and banged up offensive line is a mismatch that has to be very concerning to a North Carolina bunch that has had issues protecting quarterback Sam Howell all year. Add in the cold weather and the hits are harder to take and so is completing passes. Furthermore, a bruising running game like Pitt possesses is vital in the cold and can do a lot of damage. We often speak about the X’s and O’s meaning jack and we absolutely stand by that but we’re pointing this out to alert you to Pitt being undervalued in this game under these conditions. The tale of the tap strongly suggests that this should be a tight one because that’s all these two have played this year. We don’t see it that way at all. We see an opportunity for an easy cover at a deflated price on the host and we’re all over it.

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