Pinnacle +116 Bet365 +115 SportsInteraction +115 5DIMES +115 888Sport +110

Posted at 5:45 PM EST. 

Northern Illinois +110 over TOLEDO

Glass Bowl – Toledo, OH

8:00 PM EST. In the build-up to this game, there will be many trends and narratives that will compel bettors to get behind Toledo. The most noteworthy scripts include Toledo being a perfect 5-0 SU at home this season along with a corresponding 4-1 ATS mark. On the flipside, the Huskies have won just one game on the road this season. That win came against Ohio on October 12th when NIU was priced as a 4½-point underdog. 

Toledo’s 5-0 SU home record is a bit of a misnomer. Four of the five home victories were settled by a touchdown or less against BYU, Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, and most recently Kent State. Their one convincing win was not a résumé builder either, as the Rockets shut out FCS Murray State 45-0 in its home opener on September 14th. Two of Toledo’s home wins were settled by a combined five points (against Kent State and EMU), one of which required overtime, a 37-34 victory over Eastern Michigan on October 26th. Had a few bounces gone against the Rockets, they may very well be 1-4 SU in the Glass Bowl. Not all wins are created equal and not all 5-0 records are created equal either. Toledo’s flawless home record is fool’s gold. In-game variance has been instrumental in helping Toledo attain its undefeated home record. The bounces have simply gone in the Rockets’ favor and they have taken advantage accordingly. Eventually bounces even out. 

The Huskies overall played a much tougher schedule when you consider their non-conference match-ups at a top-10 ranked Utah along with Power Five matches at Nebraska and Vanderbilt. NIU was on the road in all three but were quite competitive in two of them. Vanderbilt edged out the Huskies by a mere six points in a game that saw NIU as a touchdown underdog. Most notably of all, Northern Illinois hung around in Salt Lake City with the Utes for three quarters. In fact, NIU led at one point and remained within striking range until Utah pulled away in the fourth quarter with a score that saw their lead increase to 35-17.

As far as common opponents go, both teams lost to Ball State. Toledo lost 52-14 to the Cardinals while NIU lost 27-20. That’s a disturbing loss for the favorite here but it’s not their only disturbing loss. As a 27-point favorite over Bowling Green, Toledo scored 7 points and fell 20-7. If you were to break this game down from the market’s perspective, chances are you’re going to come up with Toledo looking like a good bet spotting less than a field goal (at the time of this writing) but this price +2½ (all week) stands out to us like a sore thumb in a stand-alone game on a Wednesday night. No team in the weak MAC this year is good enough to run the table at home and that very much includes this pedestrian bunch. This is not a “due to lose” wager either. It’s recognizing an enticing number that the books hung in an attempt to get you to bet on the wrong side. The Huskies outright is the play. 

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