Pinnacle -17 -101 Bet365 -16½ -110 SportsInteraction -16½ -110 5DIMES -16½ -110 888Sport -16½ -114

Posted at 3:15 PM EST. 

Eastern Michigan -17 over AKRON

6:00 PM EST. Note the 6:00 start time and then note that it is a rare day when we’re recommending spotting 17 points against a team that is 0-9. We’re usually taking back inflated points with 0-9 teams but this one is different. You see, the MAC has been producing upsets all year. Every week it seems like some big favorite of anywhere between 8 and 15 points wins outright in this conference and that has this market somewhat reluctant to be spotting this type of weight on the road but we’re not concerned. Akron is 0-5 in the conference and EMU is 1-4 in the conference so on paper it looks a lot closer than it is.

If all things are truly equal, Akron cannot compete here. This is a Zips’ squad that lost to UMass 37-29. UMass is 1-9 this year. How bad is UMass? The Minutemen have been outgained by 911 yards the past two games versus independents Army and Liberty, allowing 63 points in each. They've been outgained by 300-plus yards in five of the past seven games and have allowed 50-plus points in six of the past eight. That’s who beat Akron but that’s not all. The Zips have scored nine points over their past four games and that’s no joke. In six of their nine losses, the Zips scored seven points or less. 

Both Akron and EMU played Illinois this year. Akron lost 42-3 while EMU lost 34-31. Two of EMU’s four conference losses were by one possession so they could easily be 3-2 in conference and not 1-4 and then they would be spotting 7 more points here. EMU has played the tougher schedule but at the end of the day, Akron gets destroyed every week and we cannot even add up the toll that takes on its defense. The “pitch count” on Akron’s defense can’t be measured but it’s higher than any other team in the country and we trust that we’re getting the vastly superior team at a true bargain here. 

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