Pinnacle +26½ -106 Bet365 +27 -110 SportsInteraction +27 -110 5DIMES +27 -110 888Sport +27-110

Posted at 11:30 AM EST.  

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#143 Vanderbilt +27 -110 over FLORIDA - Ben Hill Griffin Stadium – Gainesville, FL

12:00 PM EST. Targeting teams who burst the bubble has proven to be a commodity in our handicapping approach. Last week our play on Virginia Tech at +17½ nearly resulted in an outright upset when the Hokies took the Notre Dame Fighting Irish down to the wire in a 21-20 loss. The match was settled by literal last-minute heroics by Notre Dame quarterback Ian Book, who put the Irish ahead in the final moments of regulation. Virginia Tech was never in danger of not easily covering the price against the Irish, a week removed from their epic meltdown in Ann Arbor, Michigan that saw ND’s CFP hopes vanquished in a Wolverines’ rout.

Florida enters into this game in a similar position. It is difficult to ascertain Florida’s mindset after losing what was in essence a playoff game last Saturday against a team they despise with a passion. The Gators put so much into their meeting with the hated Bulldogs, as they literally could not stop talking about the rivals all throughout 2019. In the buildup to the top-10 collision between arch rivals Georgia and Florida in the annual World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, so much of the market fancied the Gators chances to usurp their arch nemesis as the Beast of the SEC East. However, the Bulldog Nation answered the call and defeated the Gators 24-17 to end any hope of Florida making a run to the College Football Playoff and unofficially eliminating them from SEC Championship qualification.

It’s very noteworthy that Florida was blown out in the follow-up to their Cocktail Party demise in 2018 when they were routed 38-17 by Missouri despite being favored by 6½ points at kickoff. The spectre of the Gators entering flat makes them a very dicey proposition here laying a huge bundle of points to a Vanderbilt team that is hungry for a cover and who has played the Gators tough. Though the Gators have won five straight against their divisional foes, the margin of victory between the ‘Dores and the Lizard was no more than 14 points in the last four meetings. We’re working with a massive overlay here in a bad spot for the favorite and we’re going to attack relentlessly.

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