Pinnacle +17 -109 Bet365 +17½ -110 SportsInteraction +17½ -110 5DIMES +17½ -110 888Sport +17½ -110

Posted at 11:30 AM EST.  

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#197 Nevada +17½ -110 over SAN DIEGO ST - SDCCU Stadium – San Diego, CA

10:30 PM EST. Any team that becomes ranked for the first time in any season subjects said teams’ to inflated lines and overreactions and also renders them a huge target for lesser-suspecting outfits that are out to make a statement. The Aztecs of San Diego State find themselves unanimously ranked #24 in both the Coaches and AP Poll for the first time this season and as a result, Las Aztecas are spotting their biggest number season-to-date.

San Diego State is another mid-major with pedigree. SDSU won the MWC conference in both 2015 and 2016 and have put together three 10-win campaigns in the last four years. The Aztecs seem to be well on their way to another potential 10-win effort in 2019 and are on a trajectory for a collision course with Boise State for the MWC hardware and maybe even an NY6 Bowl bid come season’s end.

We mentioned that San Diego State is spotting its loftiest number season-to-date here. The previous high was when San Diego State spotted 16½ points to New Mexico State on September 14th. SDSU would thump NMSU 31-10 but it is worth annotating that the Aggies have yet to win a game this season. Contrarily, Nevada is 5-4 on the year and they are the authors of an upset-win as an 11-point pup when it hosted Purdue to open their campaign on August 30th. As a result of what appears to be an overreaction to SDSU’s ranking, the Wolf Pack are priced higher here than the winless Aggies were. This raises a tremendous red flag.

In addition to the previous variables, one must decipher whether San Diego State has enough firepower to win this contest by such a margin. Excluding their largest margin of victory on the season against New Mexico State, San Diego State has won by two touchdowns or more just one other time this season on October 5th when it traveled to Colorado State and handed the Rams a 24-10 loss. Since their tilt with CSU, the Aztecs have defeated Wyoming 26-22 (as a -3½ favorite), San Jose State on the road 27-17 (closing as a 7-point choice), and UNLV in an away tilt most recently on October 26th, 20-17 and failing to cash as a 10½-point favorite. Most notably against UNLV, San Diego State led by 17 but their anaemic 111th ranked scoring offense (21.8 points per game) could not build a big enough lead to put the Rebels away. While Nevada is by no means the Oklahoma Sooners when it comes to offensive proficiency, we trust the lack of respect shown by this market toward them will give them enough motivation to come in here focused ready to fight. These are inflated points

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