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Bowl Game previews

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2018/2019 Bowl Game - early leans

These are some of our early leans in the Bowl Games this season and we’ll post a bunch more throughout the week and leading up to others. Please keep in mind that these are early leans that could change by game day as we monitor everything that surrounds them.  

 Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 29, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta


Florida +7½ over Michigan

12:00 PM EST, Although there has been a coaching change on the Florida side, there have been a couple of Michigan victories in this series recently. The Wolverines opened last season with a 33-17 victory and also won the 2015 Citrus Bowl 41-7 against Florida. Shea Patterson is confirmed for this bowl game, where Michigan outranks Florida in offense, defense and special teams. Last time we saw Michigan, they got crushed by Ohio State and that can’t be sitting well with Jim Harbaugh. We’re going to trust that the Wolverines are going to take most of the money here because the Gators have such little appeal and that’s something we’ll discuss more in our official write-up. We’re also going to trust that we’re taking back inflated points on the underdog for so many reasons that we’ll also discuss in our official writeup. Recommendation: Florida +7½ -106


Belk Bowl


Saturday, Dec. 29, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina

Virginia +5½ -110 over South Carolina

12:00 PM EST. Virginia stumbles into this game losing three of its final four games and has not won a bowl since 2005. The market will likely eat that junk up and get behind the chalk but not us. Our early lean is a strong one on the Cavaliers and that’s not likely to change by game time. Recommendation: Virginia +5½ -110


NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl


Saturday, December 29, Arizona Stadium, Tucson, Arizona


Nevada +2 -106 over Arkansas State

1:15 p.m. EST. This bowl features two teams going in opposite directions. Nevada ended the season in a non-cover to San Jose State and a straight-up loss to UNLV. Arkansas State won five of its last six games, only losing a 4-point game to ULL. Both teams campuses are nowhere near Arizona so no fan edge at all. This Bowl with be without question one of the most one-sided in terms of where they money will go and that means it’ll be one of the best “sell-high, buy-low opportunities of the Bowl season. If you prefer the Red Wolves, bet it now because you will be paying more later. Recommendation: Nevada +2 -106

College Football Playoff: Orange Bowl


Saturday, Dec. 29, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FLA


Alabama -14 -103 over Oklahoma
8:00 PM EST. The Oklahoma offense can trade punches with Alabama for a certain length in this game but that’s just X’s and O’s, really. In that regard, the number of Alabama stops will determine which team will cover because it’s highly unlikely that the Sooners will stop the Tide, ever. If we’re resting our laurels in the Sooners not stopping the Tide even once, we have to spot the points but we’re more interested in value. In that regard, we still prefer the Tide because 14 points is a ton of weight to be spotting to such an efficient outfit and we trust that the market will wrongly eat the points up. Recommendation: Alabama -14 -103  


Rose Bowl Game

Tuesday, January 1st  Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA

Washington +6½ -106 over Ohio State

5:00 PM EST There are a lot of moving parts to this play but we will stick to the most prominent storyline surrounding this affair, which is the fact that the Rose Bowl will be Urban Meyer’s last game as Head Coach of the Buckeyes of THE Ohio State University. With this revelation comes a tremendous amount of sentimentalism not to mention the media circus that has surrounded it since the story broke. That feel-good story has the market influenced, as does OSU’s massacre over Michigan into believing or trusting that the Buckeyes will send off one of college football’s greatest coaches with a win in the “Granddaddy of Them All”. Combine that with Meyer and his troops thinking that they were snubbed by the College Football Playoff Committee and the “we’ll show them” angle is another philosophy that has the market justified into laying the points here with OSU. However, all of the above are subject matter that leads to more ripped up tickets than anything else. The bottom line is that one will pay a premium to get behind all those storylines and behind the name itself. We need not imply our opinion on that practice because it is something we go over often. Play value. That’s it.

The fact of the matter remains that this could very well be the best defense that the B1G Champions will face this year outside of Michigan but they do not have the benefit of playing this one at home on their own soil with the emotional intangibles of a one-sided rivalry working in their favor. This outfit is up against a Washington Huskies team that returns for the second year in a row as the Pac-12 Champion. This is also the same UW bunch that was touted by some to make a College Football Playoff contender in the pre-season and subsequently fell of the radar half-way through the campaign when the Purple and Gold racked up three early losses against Auburn, Oregon, and California. However, the team that commands you to bow to Washington has resurged with a vengeance and finished their season with four straight wins, including knocking off a top-10 ranked Washington State in the Apple Cup to earn their bid to defend their title. Cougars quarterback Gardner Minshew was on the Heisman Watch List until the Huskies got through with him. You can be rest assured that Heisman Finalist, Buckeyes field general Dwayne Haskins, is next on UW’s hit list, as they look to close out their season with a statement win for their program while avenging a bitter loss last year in the Cotton Bowl against Ohio State’s rival Penn State. Upset potential is high in this one but the points are so inflated that we must grab them. Recommendation: Washington +6½ -106

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Our Pick

Bowl Game previews (Risking 0 units - To Win: 0.00)