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Posted at 10:30 AM EST.

12:00 PM EST. Air Force is 2-5 versus FBS competition this year, but the opposing lineup has been pretty sporty: powerhouse Utah State, mid-major force Boise St, a recent two-time defending Mountain West champ in SDSU and perhaps the best Nevada squad in a decade. Never mind the mounting losses -- Air Force has played one quarter of poor football all year. There's a big disparity between the Falcons' traditional, schedule-blind statistical profile and the picture painted by advanced, opponent-adjusted numbers.

We'll see some 5-7 teams in bowls again this year, and the Falcons probably need to win three of their remaining four games to make the postseason but this team has gone 5-2 or better over the final seven regular-season games in three of the last four seasons with the exception of last year’s 4-3 finish. Well-coached teams improve as the season wears on. Air Force has a proven propensity toward that, and this bunch is already a whole lot better than the record suggests. We now get significant points in a very winnable game. 

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