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Posted at 10:30 AM EST.

10:15 PM EST. Boise State has scored 56 and 48 points over Colorado State and Air Force the past two weeks and when a team puts up those type of numbers, it resonates in the market. Boise State has also won three in a row and four of five and are well known as one of the mid-major powerhouses but we’re not buying that they deserve to be almost two converted TD’s over the Cougars. The Broncos last four wins occurred against Wyoming, Nevada, Colorado State and Air Force. Three of those teams have three wins in nine tries. The other team, Nevada is 5-3 and Boise beat them by a lousy four points. As a 10-point fav last week against AF, it took a 68-yard pass late in the fourth quarter for Boise to win by 10. When they were a 13½-point favorite over San Diego State recently, the same price that they are here, the Broncos lost outright.

BYU is a worthy opponent but a loss last week to Northern Illinois looks bad on paper although NIU is a quality outfit. The Cougs lost 7-6 but lost the turnover battle 2-0 and that combined with some untimely penalties cost them a win. They may have also been looking ahead to this one. Furthermore, the Cougars are just 4-4 but have played one of the toughest schedules in the country with games against Washington, Utah State, Wisconsin, Arizona, Cal and NIU. We recently wrote about the dramatic impact that a midseason quarterback change or emerging playmaker can have on an offense. The Cougars may have such a difference-maker on their hands in freshman quarterback Zach Wilson, who has showed nothing but promise and poise after entering BYU's recent defeats to Utah State and Washington and then really taking off in his first start -- a 49-23 romp over Hawaii. Wilson, who is a much more dynamic athlete, has been pushing incumbent Tanner Mangum for a while now -- but it was hard for the team to move on from Mangum after he engineered the upset of Wisconsin. The 25-year old Mangum is a respected leader who puts the team first, so don't expect behind-the-scenes backlash over a move that's been overdue on the field. BYU has been playing good defense all year, and now that the offense has a playmaking spark to go with its power running identity, this team could be pretty tough to beat down the stretch. This one is priced like an unfair fight and it’s not.

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