Western Kentucky @ MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST.
Western Kentucky +13½ -105 over MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST.

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +13½ -105 BET 365 +13½ -110 SportsInteraction +13½ -110 5DIMES +13½ -110

Posted at 1:45 PM EST.

8:00 PM EST. There is no other way to describe this rivalry than as its name entails: 100 Miles of Hate. A feud that dates back to 1914, these two combatants share about as much acrimony towards one another as any two teams in the country. This is a feud that is very balanced, as MTSU holds a slight lead in the series 33-32-1 in the 66 meetings between both parties. Enough about the historical, however it does play into a one of the reasons why the Toppers have so much value here.

First off, Western Kentucky has the emotional edge in this contest, as they have won the last three games against Middle Tennessee State. Last year, a victory in Bowling Green saved WKU’s season, as it afforded them bowl eligibility and gained them to right to play in the Cure Bowl even if they lost to Georgia State. In many regards you can call Western Kentucky a snake-bitten dog. This is a football team that only owns one win this season and that was in September against Ball State. Since then, the Hilltoppers have endured a nasty skid. However, things can dramatically change here if they were to take it to their arch enemy. Western Kentucky is far better than their record shows. This is a team that lost three of its seven games by a field goal or less. One of which was the most absurdly bad breaks perhaps in college football history two weeks ago against Old Dominion, as Western Kentucky led by a touchdown with 1:47 to go but somehow ended up losing by a field goal due to a series of bizarre circumstances that only Scott Van Pelt could narrate impeccably. As a result, a bowl game is now out of question for the Hilltoppers but a win against their most hated rival can serve as a great piece of memoranda for the seniors of this team who have endured a very tumultuous campaign. For WKU, this is its bowl game.

For the Blue Raiders, a win here puts them in position to vie for a Conference USA Championship Game berth if they get by with a little help from their friends. We are looking at Florida Atlantic and Marshall in particular to give MTSU that helping hand. After this, MTSU has UTEP on deck and that’s a team that hasn’t won in 20 games. Then they get Kentucky on the road which has no effect on the conference race and then the season finale against UAB at home where Middle Tennessee State enjoys a distinct home field advantage.

However, MTSU has played two good teams this season and got smoked in both. They have zero signature victories to go along with a bunch of disturbing wins. Three of the Blue Raiders five wins were by eight points or less including a one-point win over FIU and an eight point win over Charlotte but what we like the most about these points is how disrespectful and motivating this number is to the underdog. You see, in three of the last four years that these two rivals faced one another, the point-spread was 1½ or less. In the other game, the spread was WKU -7 but because the Hilltoppers record is so bad, this number is grossly inflated this season. Mid Tennessee is probably the better team but it’s not by this much weight and we highly doubt that the host will be the more motivated either.

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Our Pick

Western Kentucky +13½ -105 (Risking 2.10 units - To Win: 2.00)