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Posted at 10:00 AM EST.

7:00 PM EST. LSU has been on the market's radar since the beginning of the season, as it was the #25 team in the nation before a pass was ever thrown. On paper,  the Tigers resume is going to turn some heads, as they have wins over three teams that were ranked in the top 10 when they beat them. The biggest of those came last week when they knocked off then number two Georgia 36-16. That schedule is resonating with the pundits and the polls because the Tigers are now the number five team in the country. However, with that increase in LSU's standing also come increase expectations and the premium you're going to have to pay to back them. That W over Georgia was a huge one and the Tigers were a seven-point pooch in that game on their home turf. That is a much different role than they are in today spotting more than a non-converted touchdown on the road. The target on LSU's back is also much larger, as they are now taking on a tough conference rival, who will be looking to do to them, what they did to Georgia. You're also going to read about how this game at Mississippi State is going to be a "revenge" spot after the Bulldogs blasted the Tigers last season 37-7, but don't let that tired angle influence you into backing LSU here. 

The Bulldogs are not going to be confused with a sexy high scoring squad, but this is a meat and potatoes team that makes its hay by running the ball. Quarterback Nick Fitzgerald led the way last time out when Mississippi State knocked off Auburn 23-9. Fitzgerald had a season-high 28 carries for 195 and two majors, while runner Kylin Hill racked up another 146 on 23 touches. When you can run the ball, it not only chews up clock, but it keeps your defense fresh and off the field. It's working for the Bulldogs, as they feature one of the best defenses in America. MSU has allowed an FBS low 12.7 points per game and it’s a top 10 unit in total defense (eighth). The Bulldogs are crushing opposing QB’s, as  lineman Montez Sweat leads the SEC with 7½ sacks which is good for the nations best sack rack at 1.25 QB putdowns per game. The Bulldogs have limited five of their six opponents this season to 14 points or less. The Bulldogs are under the radar here, as they are coming off their bye and prior to that win over the Auburn, they dropped back-to-back games to Florida and Kentucky spotting significant points in both games. Now Mississippi State is rested and ready to get another signature win against one of its oldest rivals but even if they don’t win, we’re sending it in to come in under the number in this outstanding situational spot.

Therefore, we are risking 1.1 units to win 1 on Miss St +6½ -110 and 1 unit +205 to win outright.

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