Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:30 AM EST.
3:30 PM EST. App St has failed to cover in all of its games. In other words, if you bet App State at any point this year, you have ripped up your ticket and probably vowed to not go there again. As a 21½-point favorite last week against Texas State, the Mountaineers scored a lousy 20 points and did not come close to covering in a 20-13 win. In fact, Texas State ended the game on App State’s one-yard line, ala Kurt Warner in Super Bowl XXXIV. We are in the buy low business and that’s what we are doing here.
We are also in the sell high business, which brings us to the overvalued Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Wake is 3-0 and has scored an incredible 131 points in their three wins. The Deacs have barely broken a sweat this year, outscoring its opponents by a resonating 131-17. You will now pay dearly for getting behind an untested team that has defeated Presbyterian, Boston College and Utah State. Combined, those three squads that Wake defeated are a combined 3-9. The teams that they beat are the Campbell Camels (we don’t make this shit up), Northern Illinois and Idaho State. There is a price to pay for scheduling games against weak opponents and the Deacs are likely going to pay that price here. This team has proven nothing of substance yet but the market is drooling over spotting a small price on them. Frankly, we’re not even convinced that Wake is the better team. We know for sure that they are the overvalued squad here going up against an undervalued host.
In Week 1, Appalachian State was a 12½-point dog at Georgia. Against that tremendous defense, App State would rack up 136 yards on the ground and another 148 through the air. The Mountaineers would fall behind 21-0 early before finding its feet and matching the Dawgs the rest of the way. In the final 38 minutes of that game, App State and Georgia would play to a 10-10 tie. If App State was getting 12½ in Georgia, they should not be getting this many points at home against Wake. This one is so tempting to play straight up because App State can absolutely win outright. However, there is just such tremendous value in the points that we’re going to have to lean that way instead.
Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.
#309 APP STATE +6 -108 (Risking 2.04 units - To Win: 2.00)