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#389 TEXAS ST. +13 -106 over UTSA

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +13 -106 Bet365 +13 -110 SportsInteraction +13 -110 5DIMES +13 -110

Posted at 10:30 AM EST.

7:30 PM EST. When comparing these two outfits, there is simply more appeal in UTSA than Texas State. The Road Runners come into this affair undefeated and the ripples they sent throughout college football are likely still felt in this market after they shocked Baylor at home two weeks ago. As a 12½-point road pup, Coach Frank Wilson and company would dictate the pace and flow of the game on the Bears’ own field. UTSA is a textbook triple option football team and as teams of its breed often do, ball possession and clock control are staples of their methodologies. UTSA had its way in doing so against Baylor. However, in spite of Baylor’s performance year-to-date, the verity of such an achievement is subject to skepticism.

UTSA has had a propensity to be a tremendous value play when they are undervalued or off-the-radar. The Road Runners gave fits to Arizona State in 2016 as a 21½-point home dog in which the Sun Devils had to resort to heroics to escape with a win after they trailed by as much as 16 points. Furthermore, on two other occasions, the Road Runners would win in dominant fashion as a 16½-point pooch hosting Southern Mississippi and as a 19-point pup on the road at Middle Tennessee State. UTSA took advantage of weak defenses and just like Novocaine, if you give their strategy time, it will eventually work. However, if there is a team that is familiar with Texas San Antonio it would be their old friends from San Marcos, the Texas State Bobcats. Texas State took App State to the wire last week and came within one yard of sending that game into OT. The final score read 20-13.

These two teams comprise a dormant feud which has been once again activated known as The I-35 Rivalry. The last time the two teams met was in 2012 and UTSA was the victor in that meeting when they edged out the Bobcats by a score of 38-31. Previous to that, the Bobcats won six of the previous seven contests in the annual grudge match but this is all ancient history. Fast forward to the present and Texas State has won just five games in the previous two seasons and has yet to qualify for its first bowl game in school history despite being eligible in 2014 when they went 7-5. As a result of UTSA’s accolades of late, they are subjected to what we call a recency bias. Very simply, the Road Runners have generated more press, as they were in a bowl last year and is a legit contender to win Conference USA this year. It has already beaten a Power 5 team in Baylor on the road and is giving up only 212 yards per game. To that we say big deal, as Baylor has turned out to be a mess, UTSA’s first game of the year was cancelled in Houston and last week, as a 35-point favorite, they defeated Southern, 51-17. The Road Runners failed to cover that 35-point line when they hosted Southern and they are 1-5 ATS in the handful of situations they have been laying double digits or more dating back to the 2014-15 season. This is a team that is much better suited being the hunter and not the hunted, which is exactly what they are heading into San Marcos as they battle a nostalgic adversary who will treat this match-up as if it were a bowl game.

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Our Pick

#389 TEXAS ST. +13 -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)