Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:15 AM EST.
7:00 PM EST. Louisiana Tech and Western Kentucky have quite the budding rivalry. The two sides have split the previous four meetings, in which two of these four contests were settled by a field goal. Both teams are known for prolific offensive production. Most notably, the Hilltoppers have been responsible for putting together one of the most potent offensive attacks in all of America. Such accolades have afforded WKU to win back-to-back Conference-USA Champions. However, WKU looks to have a taken a huge step backwards in the post-Jeff Brohm era. The Hilltoppers owned the best scoring offense in America in 2016 when they averaged an insane 45.5 points per game. This year, Western Kentucky ranks among the worst in the scoring department, as they average just 19 points per game (109th nationally). After being held to just a touchdown in Champaign last week against the Illinois Fighting Illini, it is painfully clear that regression has hit. Previously, the Hilltoppers failed to cover a 37.5-point line in their home opener against Eastern Kentucky. The Hilltoppers’ last win against the Bulldogs was by two touchdowns in the Conference-USA Championship game in 2016. That victory combined with their recent pedigree has WKU overpriced here in a big way.
As a whole, the books have seemed to have caught up to both WKU and L.A. Tech. Both teams are a combined 0-7 ATS in their previous seven games. However, Tech is getting much less market credit be it that they were thrashed by the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Ruston, last week. Louisiana Tech’s often-suspect defense surrendered 57 points to the ‘Dogs.
Seemingly, Western Kentucky is set up to revive its offensive operations but we urge you not to jump the gun here. The Hilltoppers have an almost non-existent rushing attack. WKU has accumulated just 104 rushing yards in their opening two games and have not eclipsed the 400-yard mark in total offense yet this season. This is a team that averaged 523 yards per game in 2016. Eastern Kentucky nor Illinois, WKU’s first two opponents, are not renowned defensive teams. Both EKU and Illinois also had more first downs than Western Kentucky. All of these statistics and bullet-points feed perfectly into Louisiana Tech’s hands. Be that the Hilltoppers are a one-trick pony at this point, Louisiana Tech can take full advantage. In addition, Tech has not taken a step back offensively, as they average 36.5 points per game. In the end, WKU is the team that should not be trusted spotting points to this breed of a football team. As a 7-point favorite, Western Kentucky had trouble scoring a touchdown against Illinois but what sticks out most is that this host has had a horrible response to a new coaching staff and at the collegiate level, coaching takes on a massive role in outcomes.
We’re playing this one both on the money line and pointspread, thus the bets are as follows:
Tech +6 -108 (Risking 1.08 units to win 1)
Tech +195 (Risking 1 unit to win 1.95 units)
Total risk will be 2.08 units.
Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.
#169 Louisiana Tech +200 (Risking 2.1 units - To Win: 4.20)