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Posted Friday, Dec 5 at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Iowa State +5.5 over PURDUE

Saturday, December 6th, 2025

Mackey Arena – West Lafayette, IN

5:00 PM ET. The first thing that demands attention isn’t Purdue’s ranking — it’s the number. If this game were in Ames instead of West Lafayette, Iowa State would likely open as the favorite. That alone is telling, because Purdue is sitting at #1 in the national polls, yet the pricing says the gap between these two teams is far narrower than perception suggests.

A quick look beneath the surface explains why. According to KenPom, Purdue grades out as the second-best team in Division I, but Iowa State checks in fourth overall — a negligible separation. The Cyclones are much closer to Purdue in structure and efficiency than their national poll ranking indicates.

Stylistically, these teams mirror one another: both attack with balance, both defend with purpose, and both execute on both ends playing complimentary basketball. The difference is that Iowa State has been slightly sharper across the board. The Cyclones allow fewer points per outing, they score at a higher clip at nearly 100 points per game which is eight more per night than Purdue — and their overall net rating is a full +10 advantage over the Boilers. That is significant.

Their biggest hidden advantage comes in chaos creation. Iowa State is a maestro in turnovers forced, generating roughly 11 steals per contest, and that pressure defense has been a part of their identity. In a game where possessions matter and every stop, deflection, and second chance has weight, being able to disrupt Purdue’s sets and occasionally flip the floor is a legitimate weapon.

So, while Purdue deserves its #1 billing and its home environment will fuel the Boilers, the number is speaking clearly: this matchup is closer to a coin toss and this is a game that ISU can win outright. But we don’t need the outright win — though it’s firmly in play — we just need Iowa State to stay under the number which they can easily do.

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