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Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Mercyhurst +22 over Loyola Chicago

9:00 PM ET. Loyola Chicago is a market darling mid-major program that plays hard under Drew Valentine, but asking them to spot over three touchdowns in early November is a stretch. The Ramblers are coming off a dramatic 91–88 win over Cleveland State that required two clutch threes in the final seconds just to escape. That’s not exactly the profile of a team in great rhythm.

Mercyhurst, meanwhile, just went into Northwestern and quietly covered without much fanfare. They lost 70–47, which doesn’t sound inspiring until you remember Northwestern’s defense ranked among the best in the Big Ten last year. The Lakers actually hung around for long stretches and held the Wildcats to 38 percent shooting in the second half. This is a veteran group with some decent guards — Bernie Blunt III can score, and Jake Lemelman led them with 14 last time out — and they’ll play slow enough to shorten possessions and keep this thing respectable.

Loyola deserves credit for building a competitive A-10 roster, but this early in the season, with a rotation that includes eight newcomers and guys still finding roles, blowouts are not automatic. The Ramblers looked shaky on defense against Cleveland State, allowing nearly 90 points and 55 percent shooting. Now they’re being priced like a fully formed unit when in reality, they’re still ironing things out.

Mercyhurst has nothing to lose here. They’ll pack it in defensively, grind clock, and force Loyola to execute for 40 minutes. That’s a tall order for a team that’s only played one real game and nearly lost it. The market tends to overvalue these early-season mid-major vs. D-II or low-major mismatches, and this is a perfect example — Loyola can win comfortably without coming close to covering.

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