Pinnacle -4 -102 BET365 -4 -105 Sportsinteraction -4 -105 888Sport -4 -105

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change.

Merrimack -4 over Marist

Hammel Court – North Andover, MA

2:00 PM ET. We've been waiting patiently for the right time to fade Marist, and that time is now. The Red Foxes look like a serious contender in the MAAC with a shiny 17-5 record, but that record is a mirage. Marist has feasted on the softest schedule in the country, according to both KenPom and ESPN, and they’ve had more lucky breaks than a Vegas high roller on a heater. KenPom’s Luck rating has them sitting 30th nationally, which tells us they’ve been skating by on good fortune rather than dominance. Color us skeptical.

This is the perfect spot for regression to hit Marist like a ton of bricks. Meanwhile, Merrimack comes in at a market low after dropping a 79-75 decision to Manhattan as a three-point road favorite. The Warriors failed to get it done in the Bronx, which means their stock is down—exactly when we want to buy in.

Unlike Marist, Merrimack has tested itself against some real competition. Their non-conference slate ranks 39th toughest per KenPom, a stark contrast to Marist’s cupcake buffet. While the Red Foxes were eking out wins against the likes of New Hampshire, Binghamton, and Stony Brook (and somehow still losing to Lehigh), Merrimack was going toe-to-toe with Butler, VCU, Rutgers, and Stanford. The Warriors even hosted Princeton and took on Vermont when the Catamounts were still the kings of the America East. Simply put, Marist has been getting away with playing down a level, while Merrimack has been sharpening its steel against legitimate programs.

Now, with Marist stepping up in class and Merrimack stepping down, the gap in quality should be exposed. The line reflects that reality, and we’re happy to lay the points with the superior side, especially at a discount. Merrimack bounces back, and we cash a ticket.

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer! 

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 17 Points ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 17 Points ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------