Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 3:30 PM EST.
NEBRASKA +7½ over Wisconsin
5:00 PM EST. Early start. That sticks out. The Badgers making noise also sticks out while Nebraska continues to falter in a bad way. The Cornhuskers have dropped six in a row and nine of 10 and once again, we’ll point to the market’s fascination with W’s and L’s above everything else. Never mind that the Cornhuskers are on the verge of a victory or that they have been highly competitive for the most part. No sirrrrreeeee, they just keep losing games and the market does not like that. We’ll get back to the ‘Huskers in a minute.
The Badgers are like a blue collar stock, that being low risk that consistently performs well with plenty of returns over the long haul. Almost always in the Sweet-16 round or Elite 8, the Badgers are reliable and very worthy of getting behind but as a big road favorite, they’re actually a very big risk. As an inflated road favorite, said risk intensifies. Wisconsin is a ranked team spotting road points and we promise you that regardless of what happens here, you would be spotting inflated points if you decide to bet the favorite.
Back to Nebraska, who will be playing their fifth ranked opponent this month. That means, season to date, the ‘Huskers have played the 28th toughest schedule in America. Furthermore, they just lost by seven to Indiana, lost by 10 to Illinois and took Michigan State to OT before losing that one also. Sure, Nebraksa was donkey-kicked by both Purdue and Rutgers during this six-game losing streak but both of those games were on the road.
The Cornhuskers defense is weak but Wisconsin plays at a slow pace and that’s a good thing for a weak defense. Less possessions per game favors the home underdog taking back a pile of points. Furthermore, despite the weak defense, Nebraska has players. Derrick Walker is without question one of the BIG’s best. They also have Bryce McGowens, another great player that is likely headed to the big show at some point. When 40% of your starting lineup is that good, a signature win isn’t far away. We understand the market’s reluctance to get behind Nebraska but we can’t worry about that. In an isolated early game to get the evening started, this Big-10 matchup will draw a ton of attention and when the action is as one-sided as this one figures to be, we almost always side with inflated points. This one checks a bunch of boxes.
NEBRASKA +7½ -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)