Lamar @ DIXIE ST
DIXIE ST -6 -107 over Lamar

Pinnacle  -6 -107 BET365 -6½ -110 SportInteraction -6 -110 BetOnlin-6 -109

Posted at 5:00 PM EST.

DIXIE ST -6 -107 over Lamar

9:00 PM EST. As a 15-point dog last game out at Stephen F., Lamar led for a good portion of that game and were never in jeopardy of not covering. Lamar took a 43-37 lead into the half and scared the bee-jeebies out the big favorite. It happens but what doesn’t happen is that a team as weak as Lamar has back-to-back strong road games. You see, the Cardinals have been a total mess this season. Some of it is not their fault, as injuries and COVID have pounded the roster. Still, the end result is that Lamar has plummeted to the depths of all analytical rankings: 344th at Haslametrics, 342nd at BartTorvik and 334th at KenPom. Lamar’s personnel limitations have forced a conservative defensive scheme, which isn’t working so well either. 

Dixie State is one of the least known programs in all of Division I basketball. This is just Dixie State’s second year at this level after joining the WAC last year and playing 21 games. They were an underdog in all 10 games in which there was a line posted. At the end of their first year, Dixie State would win eight games but two of those were against Division II competition so they had six wins against Division I schools in their first taste of Division I basketball. Not bad. 

This is the biggest price that Dixie State has ever been in their short existence at this level. Of course the market is extremely reluctant to spot a price with them. We are too but we don’t predict games, instead, we play value, we play numbers and we very often play on teams that the market wants nothing to do with. 

A closer look shows that Dixie State is not only worthy of this spot, but they’re almost assuredly underpriced. Dixie State’s Strength of Schedule ranks 158th in the country. This is a team that did not look a bit out of place in a three-point loss to Grand Canyon. They also hung 67 points on Gonzaga and while they allowed 112 points, the recurring theme is that a team has to score a bunch on the Trailblazers because they will get theirs. DSU plays at a high tempo (8th quickest pace in the country) that Lamar just isn’t capable of matching. Unless Dixie State has a horrible shooting performance, they should easily get us to the window.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A cheaper and better alternative to CABLE

TV Programming

A GREAT OFFER FOR SPORTSWAGERS READERS:

We’re offering a better and cheaper alternative to cable TV. You will literally save thousands of dollars. If you’re sick of paying a fortune for programming that you don’t even want or need, this is for you. All pro sports -- EVERY GAME, tons of college football and basketball games and tons of regular programs.



Our Pick

DIXIE ST -6 -107 (Risking 2.14 units - To Win: 2.00)

 

 

Clemson +257 over Arizona
San Diego St +12 -106 over UConn
Alabama +168 over North Carolina
Illinois +102 over Iowa State