Little Rock @ UL MONROE
Little Rock +5 -105 over UL MONROE

Pinnacle  +5½ -105 BET365 +5½ -105 SportInteraction +5½ -110  BetOnlin+5½ -108

Posted at 5:20 PM EST.

Little Rock +5½ over UL MONROE

7:30 PM EST. Lots to go over here so let’s start with UL Munroe being 6-0 at home and also being 3-0 against the spread in its own barn. What that means is they are perfect at home, both straight up against the spread (ATS) and  now they only have to spot -5½-points to Little Rock? Three of the Warhawks six home wins were against three Division II schools, which explains their 3-0 record ATS (3 games were off the board). 

Yeah, the Warhawks have played some tough teams but said tough teams toyed with them, as LSU beat them by 62 points (no kidding), Auburn beat them by 28 and 174th ranked Coastal Carolina beat them by 30. It’s a dark time in Monroe due to a severe talent drain on the offensive end that has left the Warhawks with few routes to easy buckets. They don’t rebound well and are without question one of the worst two teams in the Sun Belt. You don’t want to be holding a ticket on the Warhawks spotting points, as their chances of losing are usually better than their chances of winning but all the market sees is its misleading 6-0 record at home. 

Little Rock is 0-4 on the road. That, too, influences the price. We now have a 6-0 home team playing a 0-4 road team. Thing is, Little Rock is the better squad. This is a team that lost by just 15 to #10 Arkansas. They beat both Southern Illinois and Northern Illinois. Over the last two years, the Trojans have been downright perverse in their defiance of preseason expectations, so much so that it feels like a deliberate sneak attack on anyone trying to prognosticate their outlook. 

In 2019-20, Coach Darrell Walker’s second season in charge, Sun Belt preseason pollsters pegged Little Rock at 11th in the conference, only for the Trojans to rampage to a regular season title by two games. With many key pieces back for 2020-21, respect was earned and shown: Little Rock was the preseason favorite to win the conference but instead, the Trojans plummeted to 10th, twisting everyone’s brains into a pretzel. A side effect of that precipitous drop: Little Rock was one of the five worst teams in the country against the spread, which brings us to the present, where Little Rock’s stock remains very, very low. That said, this wager is more of a fade against a weak college basketball team that cannot be spotting any points to anyone in their conference, let alone this pile of points.


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Our Pick

Little Rock +5 -105 (Risking 2.1 units - To Win: 2.00)



NEBRASKA +7 -106 over Wisconsin
Southern Utah -6 -101 over PORTLAND ST