UNLV @ SMU
UNLV +8 -107 over SMU

Pinnacle +8 -107 BET365 +8 -110 SportInteraction +8 -110 BetOnlin+8 -109  Bookmaker +8-110

Posted at 2:45 PM EST.

Moody Coliseum, Dallas, TX

UNLV +8 -107 over SMU

8:00 PM EST. SMU is 5-3 with a very credible loss at the start of the year to then #13 Oregon. The Mustangs would also lose to Missouri (in OT) and to Loyola Marymount with both those losses occurring on a neutral floor. The losses are not terrible but the victories are, as SMU has defeated five teams, McNeese, NW State, SE Louisiana, Sam Houston and UL Monroe that are all outside the top 210 teams in the country. Three of the five wins were against teams ranked 320th in the country or worse. SMU didn’t lose to Oregon, they were donkey-kicked 86-63 by the Ducks, who, as it turns out, has many issues of their own. SMU's 5-3 record consists of them losing to every “decent team” while beating every dreg. This is a Mustangs’ squad whose Strength of Schedule (SOS) ranks 321st in the league.

UNLV is 4-3 but recency bias is in play because the Rebels have dropped three of their last four games. Furthermore, UNLV has just one cover this entire season, thus ensuring that we’re getting even more inflated points. The market does not like to keep getting behind a team that isn’t paying out, which is precisely the time we like to move in.

UNLV’s last three losses occurred against #2 UCLA, Wichita State and #4 Michigan. They lost to Michigan by just 13 and lost to Wichita by a lousy point. They also played Cal and beat them by three. Kevin Kruger (Lon’s son) spent the last two years under T.J. Otzelberger’s watch. Baby Kruger wasted no time this summer tearing the roster to shreds and restocking it with a herd of newcomers. This transfer invasion should help Kruger expedite the rebuild, which is comprised of all upperclassmen, save local rookie product Keshon Gilbert. Unlike most rookies, Gilbert hangs his hat on the defensive end, an endearing trait that glistened throughout his last year in high school. The Las Vegas Sun did an extensive breakdown of Gilbert’s prognosis, which gushes about this defensive potential, aided by a long 6’4 frame.

This is a talented UNLV bunch that is battle-tested by playing the 66th ranked Strength of Schedule (SOS) in the country, which is almost 250 positions higher than SMU’s SOS. The Rebels now take a big step down in class but the market is not aware of just how big this step down in class actually is. In what we’re calling a 50/50 position, we’re going to scoop up the points and see where the chips fall.

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Our Pick

UNLV +8 -107 (Risking 2.14 units - To Win: 2.00)

 

 

Clemson +257 over Arizona
San Diego St +12 -106 over UConn
Alabama +168 over North Carolina
Illinois +102 over Iowa State