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Posted at 3:20 PM EST.

Marquette +160 over Mississippi

7:00 PM EST. First, this game is being played at the TD Arena in Charleston, South Carolina so it takes place on a neutral floor. The Rebels are 2-0 after wins over New Orleans by 21 and Charleston Southern by 25. That makes them un-battle tested after two games and falsely favored here over the better team. 

Marquette is 3-0 but the first two victories are bordering on extreme mediocrity, as they beat SIU Edwardsville by 11 and followed that up with an unimpressive five-point win over New Hampshire. Marquette’s projections are not high this year. Some publications have the Golden Eagles finishing near the bottom of the Big East alongside G-Town and DePaul but that projection looks to be way off.

Coach Steve Wojciechowski is out at Marquette because of his inability to produce consistent results on the defensive side of the ball (only one top-65 finish in KenPom’s AdjDE), opening the door for a change to be made. Enter Shaka Smart, a far more defensive-minded boss who arguably was on his way out in Austin before leaping from the spiraling plane with his Marquette parachute. Smart has had 10 straight defenses (six at Texas, four at VCU) rank higher in AdjDE than Wojo’s best ranking at Marquette (45th in 2019). The Golden Eagles might actually get some stops this year and when you can play defense, you can win against equal or inferior opponents. 

Now let’s discuss Marquette’s third win over the year over then #10 Illinois. Andre Curbelo had the worst game of his life Monday. Curbelo made every bad decision down the stretch, took every shot he shouldn’t have taken, turned the ball over constantly and ended up with a nightmarish 11 points on 15 shots and seven turnovers, yet Marquette still won. Eventually, Smart, the wunderkind of VCU’s chaotic pressing system, went to Texas instead but it was not a good fit. On Monday night, the Smart of old was back. Illinois committed 26 turnovers in the game, at a rate of 39 percent. Marquette pressed and harrassed and ran here and there, and also got another brilliant offensive performance from guard Darryl Morsell, the four-year Maryland stalwart who never scored 20-plus points in his 137 games in College Park and has done it three times in three games in Milwaukee. A very inexperienced and shaky Ole Miss backcourt opens the door for another victory by this suddenly confident Golden Eagles’ squad. Marquette outright.

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