William & Mary @ ELON
William & Mary +4 -110 over ELON

Pinnacle +4 -113 BET365 +4 -110 SportsInteraction +4 -110  5DIMES +4 Bookmaker +4 -108

Posted at 4:30 PM EST. 

William & Mary +4 over ELON

7:00 PM EST. In the CAA, all teams qualify for the conference tournament, which is important to note here because it plays into this choice. Teams are seeded by conference record, with a tiebreaker system used to seed teams with identical conference records. The top six teams receive a bye to the quarterfinals. Right now W&M sits in sixth spot and of course they would like to remain there. Drexel is a game behind the Tribe and will play its final game against the first-place team in the conference, James Madison, on Feb 26th. A win here by W&M assures them of a bye in the first round. That’s not the reason we’re playing William and Mary, as we are not supporters of the overplayed must-win angle. We’re merely pointing out that the motivational level is high for the underdog here while we cannot say the same about the chalk. 

While significant situational edges are limited, Elon is at the bottom of the barrel in their league standings.  With no incentive to pile up wins, Elon may be tempted to be more low key and not bring attention to themselves with another win like the one they posted yesterday in an attempt to catch a higher seed overlooking them. There is no need whatsoever for Elon to play its “A” game.

Finally, the Tribe played on this floor yesterday and got smoked by Elon, 75-54. However, W&M was a 2-point choice and today there is a 6-point swing because of one result? It's absurd. Back on January 16th, the Tribe played Drexel and lost  82-58. The very next night on January 17th, on the same floor, W&M beat Drexel by five points. The point is that one result means absolutely jack and it sure doesn’t hurt that William & Mary is 100% the superior team taking back points. Very tempting to play W&M straight up but we'll settle for the points.

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Our Pick

William & Mary +4 -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)