The Citadel @ MERCER
MERCER -8 over The Citadel

Pinnacle -8½ -113 BET365 -8½ -110 SportsInteraction -8½ -110 5DIMES -8½ Bookmaker -8½ -110

Posted at 4:30 PM EST. 

MERCER -8½ over The Citadel

7:00 PM EST. The Citadel opened the season with a 8-0 record and while they didn’t really wow the nation, an 8-0 record from a SoCo team at least turns some heads. Meanwhile, Mercer opened the year with a pedestrian 7-4 record but what that doesn’t reveal is that The Citadel played the 327th ranked non-conference Strength of Schedule (SOS) in the country while Marcer played the 186th ranked non-con SOS. 

All 10 teams in the Southern qualify for the Conference Tournament with the top six teams getting a bye. Mercer ranks 7th, just a game behind VMI for the coveted bye while The Citadel is just one game behind Mercer with both squads having three games left. Point being, motivation should be high on both sides but The Citadel is such an unstable and risky commodity that we have to trust Mercer to really stick it to this invader. 

The market is not high on Mercer right now. The Bears have failed to cover in six of their last nine games while The Citadel has covered in five of its last six. That sets up this buy-low/sell high opportunity. It was just three games ago that the Citadel was getting 10 points at Chattanooga and just four games ago that they were getting +7½ at home to East Tennessee St. Mercer is as good or better than either of those squads but a 6-8 conference record combined with some underachieving moments and here we are with the Bears at a reduced rate. 

We contend the books are still behind the eight ball in capturing Mercer’s true value. Mercer holds a substantial edge in the interior while The Citadel’s maniacal pace creates a slightly skewed narrative that this team deserves more credit. Here’s the thing: if you want an offense to play at NASCAR speed, you need a driver capable of keeping the car on the tracks. In two of Duggar Baucom’s last four seasons at the helm, he’s had a Jeff Gordon-like conductor steering the offense: Preston Parks in 2017 and Lew Stallworth in 2019. This year he has nothing of the sort, thus making Citadel a massive risk taking back deflated points in these high scoring games.

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Our Pick

MERCER -8 (Risking 2.14 units - To Win: 2.00)

 

 

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