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Posted at 12:15 PM EST. 

Bucknell +13 over COLGATE

1:00 PM EST. You may remember Colgate’s near upset of Tennessee in the first round of the NCAA’s in 2018. Colgate had the Vols trembling with fear midway through the second half, after the Raiders took a two-point lead with just over 10 minutes remaining. Unfortunately, the fairytale ending we all wanted never materialized and UT eventually asserted its superiority in crunch time. Yet, in the wake of that deflating loss, an untamable expectations monster was built around Colgate’s program.

A lethargic start to the 2019 season as expectations were high and the perception was that Colgate had the chops to go 15 rounds with Clemson, Syracuse and Auburn in the non-conference. In reality, the Raiders dropped all three by tilts double digits, failing to threaten in any of those contests. Did the expectations monster loom too large? Clgate would run away with the regular season title by a comfortable, though not secure, two game margin. All five losses to league foes the rest of the way, including the soul-crushing defeat in the conference championship game, were by four points or less. Now, Colgate’s quest for redemption will come without the guidance of secret weapon Wil Rayman. Beneath Rayman’s deceiving choir book look lied a tenacious defender and relentless rebounder. He led the entire Patriot in rebounding last season, one of the stripes that earned him Defensive Player of the Year honors.

In one way, last year’s COVID corrupted NCAA tournament gives the Raiders a second lease on life. After last year’s late game melt against Boston in the title game, at home no less, the Raiders learned the perils of complacency the hard way. This year, Colgate has a 44-point win over Army, a 44-point win over Boston U and a 40-point win over Holy Cross. That covers three of its five wins, not to mention a 5-1 overall record, all within the Patriot League Conference. That said, they have played just six games and cannot be priced in this range against Bucknell, a team that has improved this year from last year and that beat Colgate last season. Colgate’s recent pedigree and three 40 point wins this season has them overpriced here to be sure.

One would have to scroll way back in the archives – specifically, 2007 and 2008, Pat Flannery’s last year and Dave Paulsen’s first year – to find evidence of Bucknell falling down the line in the Patriot food chain. However, it would appear that a slew of injuries factored into last year’s demise. Of Bucknell’s top-9 rotational players, only Jimmy Sotos and Xander Rice played in every game.

The offense, surprisingly, was the dead weight. Only Holy Cross was less efficient scoring the basketball in league play last year. Bucknell had skill at every position, but sloppy decision making, inconsistent finishing and a season-long free throw infection doomed the Bison’s offensive prowess and now we get the Bison at a bargain.

Nathan Davis is a brilliant offensive tactician and will deploy his vintage spread passing game offense once again, which is predicated on two simple components: spacing the floor and moving the ball. So simple, yet so effective, when executed properly, as it has been every year since Davis took control of the helm, save last season’s debacle. Look, every team needs a mulligan from time to time. Bucknell just hasn’t needed one for a very long time. Chalk it up to injuries or the curse that is the year 2020, but the Bison simply didn’t have it last season. The injury excuse only goes so far. The Bison were flushed with offensive ammunition, an inventory with plenty of buffer to withstand the nagging dings and bruises. All that said, throw it out and wipe it from the memory bank. Plenty of key parts return to bet on an emphatic bounce back this year but Bucknell has started just 2-4 and the market is selling. We’re buying and at this price, so should you. 

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