VCU @ ST. BONAVENTURE
VCU +110 over ST. BONAVENTURE

Pinnacle +107 BET365 +110 SportsInteraction +108 5DIMES +105 Bookmaker +108

Posted at 3:45 PM EST. 

VCU +110 over ST. BONAVENTURE

6:00 PM EST. The Bonnies are starting to make a lot of noise right now. This is a team that was coming on late last year and were on the radar of many smart college basketball observers this year. This is a very good team but if you decide to jump on them now, you would be doing so four games too late. You see, the Bonnies have greened up four games in a row, starting with an impressive win over Richmond. They are now 3-0 at home, 6-1 overall and they’re sitting atop the savage A-10. As a 2-point home favorite, the Bonnies look very appealing here but we’re going to sell high on them while buying low on VCU.

The Rams have failed to cover in three straight against George Washington, Rhode Island and George Mason, not exactly the cream of the crop in the conference. Thus, what we have here is some serious recency bias working in our favor. When the chips are down and the game is a big one, VCU is rarely a poor wager.

On February 12th of last year, clinging to an enviable 7-3 record in league play, VCU collapsed like a house of cards. Marcus Evans re-aggravated his brittle MCL against George Mason, and so began the unraveling of the Rams. Mike Rhoades filled Evans’ shoes with Nah'Shon ‘Bones’ Hyland, the heralded rookie prospect turned super 6th-man turned full-time starter. Rhoades’ rigor on the recruiting trail always has the Rams ready to retool and reload. Rather than swing for the fences with 4 and 5-star recruits (though, he certainly hit it out of the park with Bones), Rhoades consistently hits singles and doubles in the form of deep, ‘fit-for-system’ classes year over year. Replacing the notable names in the ‘key losses’ section looks daunting, but the deck is still stacked with a slew of undervalued 3-stars and that’s only the incumbents – tack on the four 3-stars Rhoades hauled in this cycle (Adrian ‘Ace’ Baldwin, Mikeal Brown-Jones, Josh Banks, Jamir Watkins), which 247sports scored the best recruiting class in the A-10.

VCU brings its stingy defense to every game. No one player stands out above the rest, but all five guys clamp down. Rhoades’ modified version of Havoc is brilliant. The Rams delay offensive initiation with extended three-quarter court pressure and disrupt offensive rhythm by eliminating casual point to wing passes. VCU’s success is often system driven rather than personnel driven. Last season’s late season collapse pokes a hole in that argument, but we’d rebuttal back with this: at the time, the sudden, knee-jerk shock to the system was too much to overcome for these unseasoned youngins. Now, those freshmen and sophomores, who were thrown into the fire without warning, are a year older and wiser, they’re 13 games into this season and they’re ready to carry the torch for a program that has a near bulletproof track record of staying in the A-10’s upper tier. In a Atlantic 10 showdown, the Rams will be ready tonight while the Bonnies have to pay their dues still.

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Our Pick

VCU +110 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.20)