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Posted at 11:10 AM EST. 

Streaming ESPN

AUBURN -3 over Kentucky

2:00 PM EST. Auburn is 1-4 in the conference and sitting near the bottom of the SEC standings just slightly ahead of both Georgia and Vanderbilt. Kentucky is Kentucky is Kentucky. The Wildcats are truly one of the blue bloods of college basketball and they sit at 3-1 in the conference. They also have pedigree galore. Why then, is Auburn favored? When we see something that doesn’t look right, it alerts us.

Bruce Pearl is in his seventh season at Auburn which marks the longest tenured DI head coaching job of his career. Pearl’s 2019 squad made a surprising run to the Final Four but the program had been gaining steam well before then. After two rough seasons spent cleaning up the mess Tony Barbee left, Pearl began to hit his stride. From 2017-19 Auburn finished above its KenPom preseason rank and last year was on track to earn a top-4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Heading into this season, with nearly everyone gone, the Tigers ranked 344th in experience which led to some unsurprising early season struggles. But now it’s time to take notice.

First, Bruce Pearl is an excellent coach and second, Sharife Cooper. Cooper came to Auburn this offseason as a 5-star prospect and top-five point guard in his class. Take one look at his highlight tape and it’s not hard to see why. With his presence, plus the presumed ascendance of former role players Allen Flanigan, Jaylin Williams, and Desmond Cambridge, and the addition of 4-star forward JT Thor, we were confident that Auburn would still compete near the top of the SEC.

Alas, Cooper’s debut was held up due to eligibility concerns causing him to miss Auburn’s first 11 games. In those contests the Tigers went 6-5 straight up and 3-8 against the spread. They scored an impressive win against Memphis on a neutral floor but otherwise lacked any key victories. Cooper’s absence wasn’t all negative, however. Without his stud point guard at his disposal, Pearl was forced to look elsewhere for competent ball handlers and he found one in 6’6” freshman Justin Powell. Powell was an “unheralded” 3-star recruit out of Goshen, Kentucky and not expected to make much of an impact. Instead, Powell embraced the starting role, dishing out assists at a top-70 rate nationally and stroking threes to the tune of 44.2%. Before going down with injury on January 2, Powell was averaging 11.7 ppg, 6.1 rp, and 4.7 apg – the latter two stats led the Tigers at the time.

Powell’s injury coincided almost perfectly with Cooper’s recent return. Cooper was inserted into the starting five against Alabama on January 9 and quickly asserted his dominance. Auburn nearly upended a hot Crimson Tide squad, as Cooper paced the Tigers with 26 points, 4 rebounds, and 9 assists. Four days later Cooper did it again, pouring in 28 points, grabbing 5 rebounds, and dishing out 12 assists in a dismantling of Georgia.

So, what are the takeaways for us bettors. Well, for starters, it’s time to move Auburn up in your power ratings – the Tigers missed a cover against Alabama by a hook and flew over the pick ’em line set by oddmakers against Georgia. That easy win over Georgia does not hold much weight in this market but a win here will. Therefore, this might be the last time we get Auburn at a bargain price.

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