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Posted at 3:30 PM EST. 

Southern Miss +13 over UAB

7:30 PM EST. What we have here is a big favorite with a 7-1 record that is eventually going to pay the price for developing some bad habits when playing marshmallows. UAB is indeed 7-1 but its Strength of Schedule (SOS) ranks 315th in the country. It does not get much worse than that in terms of weak competition. The Blazers best win came against whom? East Tenn State? Kennesaw State? Alcorn State? Tuskegee? We are not suggesting for a second that Southern Miss is any good but the point we’re trying to make is that the Blazers cannot be priced in this range as a third-tier team from a third tier conference. Southern Miss is a third-tier team also but they’re not the one’s spotting more a baker’s dozen here. 

Southern Miss is 5-4 and its SOS ranks 293rd in the country so we are not going to sugarcoat this and say that the Eagles are better than advertised. They have some ugly wins against weak teams too but they still cannot be priced this high against a team they can compete with. 

It might appear that UAB has one of the elite mid-major defenses in the country but do not believe it.  In six of their seven Division I games, the Blazers are allowing a paltry 55.6 points per game, with none of their opponents even managing 0.9 points per possession. Looking closer, though, and it seems that it could be an unsustainable run of awful shooting. Andy Kennedy’s squad ranks 21st nationally in opposing 3P%; in his final four seasons at Mississippi, his teams ranked 310th, 248th, 223rd, and 247th. This Blazers squad is not particularly big or long (154th nationally in average height), so some regression from deep – and the charity stripe, where opponents are making just 62.2% of their attempts – could quickly revert UAB’s defense to average. This is a below average team spotting above average points.

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