Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:30 AM EST.
Indiana State +175 over MISSOURI ST
4:00 PM EST. Yesterday we wrote that Missouri State is a 4-1 team and appears to be spotting a beatable number against a Sycamore team that is 0-2 in the conference and just 3-4 overall. Well, as it turns out, it was a very beatable price indeed, as the Bears went gate to wire in a 10-point victory. Missouri State led by as much as 18-points at one point. We also knew that this was a scheduled back to back and suggested that if the Sycamores lost Game 1 of this back-to-back, we would get behind them in Game 2. We're sticking with that strategy here.
Here is yesterday's writeup that applies again today:
Missouri State has played the 294th ranked Strength of Schedule (SOS) in the country. Its four wins came against William Jewell, Northwestern State, Little Rock and Northern Iowa. This is a team that overachieved last year to a high degree and therefore regression is much more likely than improvement. Losing talented players like Keandre Cook and Tulio Da Silva has not shown up in the loss column yet and that’s because of said weak schedule. There is a price to pay for playing dregs.
Indiana State is coming off back-to-back losses to Drake. Drake is 11-0. Darian DeVries has transformed Drake into some unholy amalgamation of a bulldozer, a wagon, and a dump truck – the Bulldogs have absolutely demolished their competition this year. The credit mostly goes to a turbo-charged offense that has opted out of missing shots thus far, ranking 15th nationally in 3P% (40.8%) and 21st in 2P% (58.0%). Thanks to skilled forwards Tremell Murphy and Shanquan “Tank” Hemphill, DeVries can have four skilled playmakers on the floor at all times, making the Bulldogs an absolute nightmare to try to defend. Plus, linchpin Roman Penn may contend for Missouri Valley Player of the Year; he ranks 5th nationally in assist rate, and he’s essentially been unstoppable in pick-and-roll or one-on-one situations this season.
Although the Sycamores lost twice to Drake, they lost by just seven points in the rematch on Dec. 28th. Indiana State also lost to Purdue and Saint Louis. The Sycamores SOS ranks 73rd in the country, which is 219 positions better than the Bears SOS. These two programs are scheduled to play back-to-back games today and tomorrow. Should ISU lose here, they are likely going to be a similar number tomorrow and we’ll therefore come back on them. The superior team isn’t likely going to lose twice in two days and therefore there is nothing but profit potential and value in playing them to win once.
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Indiana St +175 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.50)