Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 1:40 PM EST.
St. Josephs +120 over DREXEL
6:00 PM EST. The Hawks are coming off a disastrous year and the market is having a difficult time looking away from last season’s blazing inferno of a car crash. For starters, the Hawks’ 6-26 record was the worst in program history. Secondly, St. Joe's is off to an 0-2 start this year so let’s turn that into six wins and 28 losses over its last 34 games, which sets up this gorgeous opportunity to buy low.
As disastrous as Billy Lange’s opening year was, it’s only fair that we mention the notable injuries that derailed what looked like a promising start. Before Taylor Funk’s busted right hand put him on the shelf eight games into the season, the young Hawks beat UConn on the road – that’s correct, the same team that got boat-raced by St. Francis PA and Lafayette at home less than a month later.
The Hawks lived and died by three-point shooting last year. They recklessly levered up on 3s, only to come crashing down when they didn’t hit. It’s not that the Hawks’ ice-cold shooting was a function of poor shot selection. Per dribblehandoff.com’s shot selection metrics, the Hawks graded out as 144th nationally – essentially, right around average. Defensive worries notwithstanding, the Hawks *should* benefit from the variance monster working in their favor this season. There’s just no way they shoot as poorly as they did a year ago, especially with Taylor Funk back in the fold. St. Joe’s has played only two games this year, a loss to #6 Kansas and a five-point OT loss to Auburn, Improvement is inevitable.
Meanwhile, Drexel has played five games this year and come in with a 3-2 record. Those five games has resulted in the Dragons playing the 261st ranked Strength of Schedule in the country. Drexel’s three victoires have come against Quinnipiac not once but twice and Coppin St. This is a team that resides in the Colonial. In trying to figure out how to gauge Drexel’s spot in the CAA this year, we just have to figure out where a team that will inevitably finish 250th measures up against everyone else and voila, there you have it. The Dragons have been laughably consistent in recent seasons (six to be exact) and are not projected to contend in a weak conference. If they beat the Hawks so be it but the Dragoons haven’t beaten anyone this year, they are constantly near the bottom of the Colonial and they’ll now face a superior team that they’re laying points to. Pencil us in.
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St. Josephs +120 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)