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Posted at 1:00 PM EST

NORTHWESTERN +5½ -110 over Purdue

Nitro: BIG TEN NETWORK Channel in the USA/CAN Sports Section

9:00 PM EST. Northwestern is just 6-14 and they were waffled by Michigan State, 79-50 on Wednesday night. That defeat was the Wildcats fifth in a row and if that wasn't ugly enough, they lost those games by an average margin of 14 points. We often love to back a team that just got whacked and on the surface, the Wildcats fit that bill five times over. While that average margin of loss looks terrible, the game against the Spartans inflates it. It wasn't all doom and gloom, as a look back shows that NW played a tough game against a good Illinois team, losing 75-71 on the road. While getting your ass kicked for a couple of weeks will do nothing for your curb appeal, it does allow us to take back inflated points with Northwestern on its home floor against a team that can't buy a win on the road.

Who is Purdue to be spotting a price like this on the road in conference? One reason this number is so high, other than NW's recent struggles, would be the Boilermakers' dominance in this series dating back to 2014. Purdue has racked up seven straight victories, but that one-sided action only inflates its status. It could also incorrectly skew an unsuspecting market into thinking that somehow the Boilermakers are superior to the Wildcats when that is just not the case. Purdue can't buy a win outside of Music City, as it has dropped five in a row on the road, including a 70-63 defeat at Rutgers on Tuesday night. Another one of those losses was at Nebraska, where the Boilermakers were a -13-point favorite. They lost 70-56. It can be hard for Purdue to pull away in games because it plays the fifth slowest pace in the nation and if the Boilermakers don't hit their shots, they are screwed. In his last five road games, Sasha Stefanovic has gone just 6-for-30 from beyond the arc, which is a big reason why Purdue is not winning those games. It's not easy to win on the road in Division I, which is why taking back these inflated points is a must in a game that the Wildcats can win outright.

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