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Posted at 3:45 PM EST

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BYU -12½ over Pepperdine

8:30 PM EST. On paper, Pepperdine and BYU are almost equals. Both teams are 4-3 in the conference and both teams are over .500 overall with the Cougars sitting at 15-7 while the Waves are 3½ games worse at 11-10. We can assure you that equals they are not. Not even close. Pepperdine is 3½ games worse than BYU after playing the 190th ranked schedule in America. Meanwhile, BYU’s strength of schedule ranks 22nd in the country but that doesn’t tell their story either. While SDSU and Dayton are getting all the mid-major headlines, BYU is on their level but because they’ve lost seven times, they are still far under the radar. 

Joe Lunardi has Gonzaga, Kansas and San Diego State all on the No. 1 seed line. What do those teams have in common? They all beat BYU when Yoeli Childs, the team's leader in adjusted win shares per 40 minutes, was out due to injury or suspension. BYU is third in the nation with five games decided by one point or in overtime. BYU is 1-4 in those games with all five coming on the road. BYU has lost to a potential No. 1 seed without its best player or lost on the road when down by one or fewer at the end of regulation. That sort of bad luck is not usually predictive, and now Childs appears to be back to health. The point is that BYU is a team much better than its record and now is the time to start buying them aggressively before the market catches up to just how good they truly are. 

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