Pinnacle -4½ -108 BET365 -4 -115 SportsInteraction -4 -110 5DIMES -4 -110 888Sport -4 -110

Posted at 12:00 PM EST

QUINNIPIAC -4½ -108 over Fairfield

7:00 PM EST. While there may be a case to be made for Fairfield in this game, we trust the Stags are in a prime position to be overwhelmed in this spot. The first trend you are going to read today is that the Stags are 12-5 against the spread this season despite only going 7-10 in the standings. In this market, we know that cashing tickets is all that matters and Fairfield has gone to the pay window with regularity, which inflates its value greatly. The second trend you are going to read about this game is that the Stags have covered five straight on the road against Quinnipiac at People's United Center. If you're a regular reader of this space, you know that while we despise useless trends, they no doubt influence a market that doesn't bother or is too lazy to dig deeper. This works to our advantage because rarely do those trends factor into the results and they allow us to get a better price on the side we're targetting.

Quinnipiac is coming off two straight losses after starting Metro Atlantic play at 4-0. Those two defeats are being scrutinized heavily, as it's not just that the Bobcats lost, but how they lost. In their last game, at home in Hamden, Quinnipiac was pounded by Saint Peter's, 71-51, as a -5-point favorite. In their game prior, the 'Cats dropped a 69-57 decision at Manhattan, failing to cover as a small pooch (+1½). Recent results weigh heavily in the market and so we can understand there may be some hesitation to spot a price with the Bobcats against an ATS monster like the Stags. A short-priced favorite is just as valuable and provides just as good an opportunity as an underdog taking back too many points. The challenge here will be for the Stags to keep up with the Bobcats on the road. Quinnipiac should have little trouble getting theirs, as it averages 70.4 points per game, which highlights that that poor performances against St. Peter's and Manhattan were exceptions and not the rule. Meanwhile, the Stags struggle to score and boast one of the worst offenses in the nation, averaging just 60.8 points a night. Since coming to Camden, head coach Baker Dunleavy has tried to mould the Bobcats to the "pace and space" style that has taken over both the college and the pro games. That means if Quinnipiac makes its shots, it has a great chance to put up big numbers. Even if the Bobcats struggle, a team like the Stags is going to have a hard time going shot for shot with them, which makes this short price even more appealing. With the Bobcats struggling as of late, we are presented with an opportunity to "buy-low" on what might be the most talented team in the MAAC.

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