Mississippi St. vs Liberty
#822 Mississippi St. -6½ -103 over Liberty

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -6½ -109 BET 365 -6½ -110 SportsInteraction -6½ -110 5DIMES -6½ -110

Posted March 22 at 10:35 AM EST

NCAA Tournament - East Regional - SAP Center - San Jose, CA

7:15 PM EST. The Liberty Flames are the Atlantic Sun representative this year after a 14-2 conference mark and a 28-6 overall mark. The Flames also beat Lipscomb in the conference final to punch their ticket to The Dance. What we have here is once again a #5 v #12 potential upset but we’ll reiterate that all #5’s come at a bargain price this year. No upset here folks. Instead, look for a rocking chair blowout.

Liberty hasn’t made this event since 2013 and the program has only appeared three times in its history. We point that out because it’s a good reminder that these are kids, not pros and the dynamics are so different for a game like this under the bright lights on such a massive stage. For a team like Liberty that is accustomed to playing in small gyms in front of 1500 people, they now go to playing in an 18,000 capacity arena that not only is bigger but will seem bigger too. It was euphoria for these kids when they beat Lipscomb to get here while a team like Mississippi St. and its players have played on big stages under the bright lights many times while playing in the SEC.

Furthermore, the Flames played the 249th non-conference schedule in America, which included losing to the worst team in the SEC, Vanderbilt, by nine points. Liberty also lost to another non-tournament SEC team, Alabama, also by nine. Liberty’s best win this year came against whom exactly? Kent State? Navy? Georgia State? You would be hard pressed to find a tournament team with more garbage wins than Liberty.

Liberty is getting market credit here only because it’s a 12/5 matchup. This is the least likely 12/5 matchup to fall outright or against the spread and in fact, we’ll go on record by saying this is the worst 12 seed by a canyon-like distance ever. Mississippi State has the nation's 14th-best offense, per Kenpom, and it'll be up against a Liberty D that checks in 196th. The Bulldogs have seven wins against teams in the top 50 of Sagarin Ratings while Liberty hasn't played a top-50 team. For a team that at one point this year was 12-1 and was ranked every week for a time,the Bulldogs are generating absolutely no buzz. The Bulldogs beat Cincinnati, Saint Mary’s, Auburn, Dayton, Clemson and Wofford (by 11) among others and lost to both Kentucky and LSU by a measly four points each game. We usually think of Ben Howland’s teams as less than entertaining, but this one ranks 29th nationally in offensive efficiency. Senior guard Quinndary Weatherspoon is one of the better two-way players in the country. This is such a great purchase on a very underrated team and we’re all over it.

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Our Pick

#822 Mississippi St. -6½ -103 (Risking 2.06 units - To Win: 2.00)

 

 

Clemson +257 over Arizona
San Diego St +12 -106 over UConn
Alabama +168 over North Carolina
Illinois +102 over Iowa State