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Posted March 20 at 8:00 PM EST

NCAA Tournament - Midwest Regional - Vivint Smart Home Arena, Salt Lake City, UT

1:30 PM EST. The ol’ #5 v #12 matchup that has become notorious for producing tournament upsets for years is on slate here but now the market is eating that garbage up like it’s candy. Trust us when we tell you that if the past 12 v 5 matchups were all #7 v #10’s, the results would’ve been exactly the same and the media would be selling #10’s this year instead of #12’s. That’s good news for us because we now get all #5’s this year at a bargain starting with this one.

The Aggies went 30-4 overall this year, which looks pretty on paper but they played the 254th ranked non-conference schedule out of 353 Division I teams. NMSU followed its non-con schedule by going 15-1 in the WAC but to that we say, big deal, as the WAC features powerhouses, Grand Canyon, UT Rio Grande Valley, Seattle, UMKC and CSU Bakersfield among others. This is an Aggies team that lost to Drake and California Baptist. Its other two losses were to its two toughest opponents, Kansas and Saint Mary’s and they lost to the latter by 15.

Auburn won their conference tourney, but the committee didn't give them much of a reward for it. We have the Tigers as the 11th-best team in the nation, and they received a #5 seed, with the committee ranking them 18th. http://Kenpom.com agrees with us, slotting the Tigers 13th, led by an eighth-ranked offense. Auburn's efficiency rating is actually in line with being a #2 or #3 seed. Instead, they're multiple lines lower and get a possible Round 32 matchup with Kansas if chalk holds and we’re pretty damn sure the chalk will hold up here. Auburn played a tough non-con schedule that included a six point loss to Duke, a nine-point win over Xavier, a 16-point win over Arizona, a 10-point win over Dayton, a five-point win over Murray State and a 22-point win over Washington. The Tigers went just 11-7 in the SEC but they closed out the year with eight straight wins that included a 20-point victory over the Vols. That was the second time that Auburn beat Tennessee this season. The Tigers also lost close games to Kentucky (82-80) and to LSU (83-79). Battle tested and one of the hottest teams in the country, Auburn is among the most underrated teams in the field and we get em at a true bargain here.

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