San Diego vs Saint Mary’s
San Diego +5 -110 over Saint Mary’s

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Posted at 12:45 PM EST

WCC Tournament - Orleans Arena - Las Vegas.

11:30 PM EST. Most of the teams in the WCC have been eliminated already with this being the final game to determine who will earn the right to lose to Gonzaga in the Conference Championship game tomorrow. For years, only two teams, St Mary’s and Gonzaga, have any market credibility in this conference. The Zags represent the WCC every year at The Dance and on occasion, the Gaels have earned an at-large bid but there will be no such considerations this year. The only way that the Gaels will punch their ticket to March Madness is to win here and then beat the Zags. The latter ain’t happening and we have our doubts about the Gaels getting by San Diego.

What we have here is the #2 seed (in conference) against the #7 seed. That looks like easy pickings. Combine the seedings with St. Mary’s market credibility and the result is that you will 100% pay an inflated price to get behind the chalk here. Once again, we point to the market’s fascination with results over performance. In that regard, the Gaels finished 20-11 overall while also going 11-5 in conference while the Toreros went 7-9 in conference but 21-13 overall.

The Gaels non-con schedule ranked 184th in the country. In fact, Saint Mary’s did not have a signature win all year. They lost to Utah State, Mississippi St, LSU and to Gonzaga twice. Not only did they lose to the Zags but they lost the first game by 48 points (94-46) and the second game by 14 but that second game was the final game of the regular season, thus it meant zilch to the Zags and everything to the Gaels. Again, Saint Mary’s did not have one credible win this year.

The Toreros played a tougher non-con schedule than the Gaels. Although San Diego really didn’t have a signature win either, they lost by just three to Washington, by seven to Ole Miss, by 10 to Oregon and they beat Colorado and San Diego State. In its two games against the Zags, San Diego covered both games and were down by just five with under six minutes to go in the first matchup. Furthermore, the Toreros will have the best player on the floor tonight in senior forward Isaiah Pineiro, who burst onto the scene last season after transferring from Portland State. Pineiro, a 1st Team All-WCC performer, ranked 1st in the conference in usage, top 15 in both block and steal rates, and 2nd in fouls drawn per 40 minutes while shooting a conference clip of .522/.364/.790 (2P/3P/FT). Very few big men in the country run the floor and push the ball in transition as well as Pineiro does.

Finally, Saint Mary’s focus has always been to beat the Zags, a team that has been their nemesis for years and one they have never been able to beat. The Gaels so desperately want to beat the Zags (and punch their ticket to the dance) that they may overlook the Toreros here. You see, Saint Mary’s destroyed San Diego not once but twice during the regular season by scores of 66-46 and 76-59. Those two results will very likely have the Gaels feeling complacent and looking past the Toreros in anticipation of their showdown with the Zags. That domination over San Diego will also be a great selling point for a market that eats that stuff up. We, on the other hand, are always on the lookout for inflated points that don’t look like it. This one is right in our wheelhouse.

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Our Pick

San Diego +5 -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)