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Posted at 11:00 AM EST.

12:00 PM EST. Earlier this week, we played the Johnnies to beat the Musketeers by six or more and didn’t come close to cashing the ticket, as Xavier went gate to wire in an easy victory. Now, we have discussed the zig-zag theory before and are always mindful to not bet against a team we just lost to but there are exceptions to every rule and this is one of those times. You see, the zig-zag angle works when there is a heavy consensus on one side and it loses. The market then switches to the other side the next game out, which is precisely what we’re doing here but in this case, the market is heavily leaning back to the Johnnies because DePaul has no market credibility. Furthermore, this is the first game on the board today and those researching will read all about how this is a “must win” game for St. John’s.

The Musketeers have been on an absolute tear, 5-0 in their last five, with wins over Creighton, Providence (away), Seton Hall (away), Villanova and, on Thursday night, at Carnesecca Arena over St. John’s. The only  positive spin for the Red Storm in their loss to Xavier was that at least Xavier has been beating everyone these days so it wasn’t personal. If the bracket were built today, we still trust St. John’s would be semi-comfortably in. Of course, the bracket will not be built today, or before the Red Storm play their final two games of the regular season: at tricky DePaul here and on March 9 in the return trip to Xavier. The Johnnies suddenly have work to do and the pressure is on. The Johnnies have little size up front, and despite all those easy wins in its weak non-con schedule Chris Mullin is getting little production from his bench. Now that the spotlight is on, as it was on Thursday, team concept is a problem. Shamorie Ponds and Mustapha Heron must play together with just one basketball when both want to be “the guy”. On the road and under pressure is not a good fit right now for spotting points or a tag with a team that has proven nothing.

DePaul is going nowhere this year but we can assure you a focused effort with high intensity is on the table here in an attempt to knock the Johnnies off the bubble and onto the rail. The Blue Demons have five wins in conference, they’re 10-6 overall at home with wins over Penn State, Seton Hall and Xavier among others and they are not going down without a fight. The “must win” angle in play for the Johnnies is one of our favorite fades because it’s so overplayed by a market that looks for useless stuff like that. It also creates an inflated price, thus, the Blue Demons get the outright call.

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