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Posted at 1:15 PM EST.

6:30 PM EST. Maryland shot up the polls this week after a pair of wins over Iowa and Ohio State with the latter coming by a 72-62 score on Saturday afternoon. The Terrapins now have 21 wins this season and are back in the national conversations, but before we get too excited about their postseason prospects, we must take a closer look at their full body of work this season and that's where the leaks start. Maryland has played a weak non-conference schedule that ranks 320 of the 353 rated schools on KenPom. Early season wins over Delaware, Navy, North Carolina A&T and Mount St. Mary's count just the same as those over the Buckeyes and Hawkeyes in the win column but they do not carry as much weight from our perspective. These two teams played up in Happy Valley on December 1 with Maryland taking a 66-59 victory, but that previous result should only help one build a case against the Nittany Lions, which is what we are counting on in the first high profile game to tip off today. Twice we have targeted these “early start games” over the past week and trust that we’ve found another good one here.

Penn State has slightly more than half of the victories of their ranked competition tonight and yet they are taking back a minimal number if you look at this game on the surface. A deep dive into the Nittany Lions season shows that they've played the third toughest schedule and have a nice win over Virginia Tech, while also playing non-conference games against Alabama, DePaul and N.C. State. Penn State has ripped off two wins in a row, but they might not hold much weight in the market, as they came over Illinois (6-10) and Nebraska (5-12) both of which have poor Big Ten records. However, the bottom of the Big Ten is loaded with battle-tested teams that are better than advertised, but have poor records because they play in an elite conference. The gap from the third place team to the last place side is much smaller than the standings would have you believe, which is to suggest that Penn State should probably be the betting favorite on its home floor despite its sub .500 record. The Nittany Lions are very much on the 'Terps level and they might be better.

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