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Posted at 1:40 PM EST.

7:00 PM EST. We backed Central Florida on Sunday afternoon and enjoyed a rocking-chair classic, as the Knights took SMU and beat it pillar to post. That 95-48 embarrassment of the Mustangs was a head-turner and was the featured noon EST game that day, which meant it got a ton of action from the market. It doesn't matter what side of that game you were on; it's going to be very hard not to want to ride the Knights here in the War on I-4, which is a series they have dominated after three straight season sweeps. A win tonight would be the fourth. As hard as it is, we must switch gears in this game, as fading teams coming off blowout wins are often spotting inflated points the next time out. With that in mind, this appears to be a relatively short number for the Knights to be spotting even if it is on the road against a big rival. That's a big red flag.

The Bulls have lost by an average of 11 points during this seven-game losing skid to the Knights, which is another selling point for those backing the favorite but that’s just another one of those useless trends we refer to often. It matters not what happened two, three or more years ago, as it has zero impact on the outcome of this one. One might as well say that the Knights are 9-0 against the spread on $1 hot-dog nights. It’s fu**ing ridiculous to even look at or consider that those past results will help determine the outcome of this or any other game. If the Knights win, it’ll be because they were the better team. However, oddsmakers have hung a proverbial carrot-on-a-stick out for this one and again, that's a big red flag.

What is somewhat hidden in the Knights’ overall 20-6 record is that they have played a mere seven games on the road this year and are a pedestrian 3-4 while the Bulls are an impressive 14-3 at home. Still, we’re not going to sugarcoat this and suggest that the Bulls and Knights are equals because they are not. Thing is, we have to question the motivation of the visitor here, as they sit third in the conference behind Houston and Cinci with four games left and they have those two schools on deck. The Knights are probably not going to catch either and nobody is catching them so it is likely a third place finish but they can certainly earn an at-large big with wins over one or both of those programs on Saturday and Thursday respectively. For the Knights, this game means zilch with two massive games on deck but for the host, this game means everything, as they try to get this proverbial monkey off their backs. The situation strongly calls for a bet on the underdog.

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