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Posted at 12:25 PM EST.

8:00 PM EST. Iowa State is desperately hanging on to its Top 25 status after dropping three of its last four games including a pair of contests to TCU and to Baylor. Worse yet, in the market, the Cyclones have covered just one of their last six. ISU was a 10 and 9½-point favorite respectively in those home defeats to the Bears and Frogs and they also failed to cover as eight-point chalk in a 65-60 win over Texas. Recent results tend to carry weight in the market, which is why taking back this significant price against Iowa State appears to be the prudent play, as Oklahoma has won two in a row, including a victory over a recent "like" opponent in TCU but we’re not so sure. Indeed the price looks steep but on a day when the menu is small and there are only a couple of high profile games, the price hung here was not an oversight. You know the story….if it looks too good….

With that modest two-game run, OU is now 5-9 in Big 12 play. The latest win was a hard fought 69-67 edging over rival Texas, which makes this a potential letdown spot. There's a great chance that the Cyclones will be dropped from the polls, which takes away the potential luster of a "signature win" over a ranked opponent before this game even tips off. We also cannot get too excited about the Sooners recent form, as they lost the five games prior, including a home loss to these Cyclones on February 4. That 75-74 win by ISU was by the slimmest of margins, which is another reason why the Sooners are getting a long look today. However, even with the recent defeats, ISU is still ranked as the 13th best team on KenPom and it’s legit. This is a good purchase over the long term. Without their best player, the Cyclones looked very solid the first 3½-months before this minor snag. The game opened at -10 but the appeal of the Sooners taking back this many points was too appealing for the market to ignore and now we get the Cyclones at a bargain and probably in a convincing win too.

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