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Posted at 11:25 AM EST.

12:00 PM EST. The Mustangs are coming off a lopsided 77-55 win over UConn last Thursday night and while the market tends to overvalue recent results, we are not going to put much stock into that victory. Before that double-digit drubbing, SMU had lost five games in a row. At 13-12, the Ponies should have a much better record than they do because they've played a weak non-conference schedule (316 of 353 schools on KenPom) with many of those games being played in the comfy confines of Moody Coliseum. In fact, SMU has played just seven road games this season and have gone 2-5 in those contests. Today will be number eight.

The Knights dropped at 60-55 decision on the road at #25 Cincinnati in their last game. While the loss was disappointing, UCF could take some pride in the fact that it shut down the conference’s top scorer after limiting Jarron Cumberland to just 11 points on a 3-for-13 night from the floor. That loss to the Bearcats brought an end to what had been a solid three-game winning streak including a 71-65 victory over these Mustangs in University Park on February 10. The Knights were a three-point pooch in that prior meeting, but opened today as a 7½ point favorite over the Mustangs. Now, that big swing must have appeared to be too significant, as the market has taken a position in this game with the price being bet down across the board. However, we see it a different way and it is actually UCF that is being undervalued here. KenPom has the Knights ranked as the 50th best team in the country while SMU is ranked 75 positions lower. To put that into perspective, what would the 8th ranked North Carolina Tar Heels be at home against the 81st ranked team in the country, Vermont, who is also 75 positions lower. -18 perhaps? It would be safe to assume anywhere between -16 and -20 but the point is that SMU, a weak and non-battled tested road team is getting way too much credit in this number.

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