UL-Monroe +4½ @ TEXAS STATE.
#621 UL-Monroe +4½ -101 over TEXAS STATE.

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Posted at 1:30 PM EST.

8:00 PM EST. UL Monroe is one of the best shooting teams in the Sun Belt and they are ranked 55th in the nation in points per game, as they average 77.5 points a night. The Warhawks are coming off an 83-76 road loss to LA-Lafayette, but that point total was their lowest in five games. UL Monroe had put up 88, 82, 84 and 81 in the four games prior. Before losing to the Ragin' Cajuns, the Warhawks knocked off third place Georgia Southern 88-79 and second place Georgia State 82-76, which are the true class schools of the Sun Belt. UL Monroe was a small favorite in both of those games and now they are taking back a pile of points while taking a step down in competition.

Texas State has won four straight and is no doubt overachieving after being pegged to be a middle of the road team in the Sun Belt. The Bobcats are 21-5 and 10-3 in conference play, but they feasted on the fat of a weak non-conference schedule that ranks 303 of the 353 graded programs on KenPom. Texas State does not have a signature win and was the betting favorite in all but two of its non-conference games, both of which they lost. The Bobcats are a dangerous team to spot points with because they play a slow and plodding game that can lull anybody into defeat, but they also lack quality scoring depth. Covering that number is complicated further when their competition is capable of scoring in bunches, as the Warhawks are. Take the points.

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Our Pick

#621 UL-Monroe +4½ -101 (Risking 2.02 units - To Win: 2.00)

 

 

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