Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 12:30 PM EST.
9:00 PM EST. Forget Alabama for a second, as it is the second best team here and it’s not even close. The records suggest otherwise, as ‘Bama is 6-4 in conference while State is 4-6 but that’s perfect for our purpose of getting the superior team at a deflated cost. The Crimson Tide’s last two wins have come against Georgia and Vandy, the two worst teams in the conference. The last credible team they played was Auburn and the Tide lost that one by 19. Alabama has some nice wins this year and they also have some “good losses” like the three-point loss at Tennessee for instance but not everything is as it appears. Games in December and January have less meaning than games in February. Furthermore, many programs are not taken seriously and we’re suggesting that Alabama had previously been overlooked by many of the powers that be. The Tide caught some of them napping and won some games but nobody is overlooking them now. In other words, State will not overlook this opponent for a second.
From the start of the year up to January 1, the Bulldogs had been ranked every week and had some notable wins over Dayton (road), Clemson (neutral) and Cincinnati (home). MSU has dropped two in a row to LSU and Kentucky but the loss to LSU came in OT and the loss to Kentucky was by a lousy four points after the Bulldogs got off to a horrible start and fell behind by more than 20. This host is on the verge of some big games but they are generating absolutely no buzz. That is going to change so buy now. We usually think of Ben Howland’s teams as less than entertaining, but this one ranks 20th nationally in offensive efficiency. Senior guard Quinndary Weatherspoon is one of the better two-way players in the country. One of State’s losses this year came by four points at Alabama in a game where MSU shot just 3-of-19 from 3-point range. You might want to read that again because they lost by four lousy points in Alabama and now the venue switches. This shouldn’t be a bubble team and now is the time to prove it.
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MISSISSIPPI ST. -5 -109 (Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)