Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:15 AM EST.
5:00 PM EST. Yesterday, we stressed the importance of sticking with a team, even after they let us down, as the eyes don't lie. If one of our targets was undervalued in one game and we rip up that ticket, there is a good chance we'll get an even better price the next time out. With that said, we present the Eagles of Florida Gulf Coast, who we faded as a 20-point pooch last time out. "Dunk City" just about walked away with the outright win that day, but we will not let up, as the Eagles are now favored in this spot, which would not have been the case had Lipscomb held up its end of the bargain on Thursday night. FGCU still has some shine from its NCAA Tournament run and are easily the most recognizable team in the A-Sun, but while the school still carries that catchy moniker, the man that was the mayor of Dunk City, former coach Joe Dooley, has moved on to greener pastures. Now, we're not suggesting the Eagles are merely pushovers, but they lost a ton of talent, which is one of the big reasons they have fallen out of the big three in the A-Sun. We saw what the oddsmakers thought the gap was between FGCU and a top of the conference side like Lipscomb (Lipscomb opened as a 23-point fav) and because of that near win, there has been a 20-point swing in the other direction that cannot be justified for any other reason than recent results and that the opposition Ospreys are entirely off the radar.
Last year was a disaster for coach Matthew Driscoll at North Florida, but in his defense, he did lose all-time program great Dallas Moore and had a young team to mold. The Ospreys went just 14-19, but returned all five starters from last years squad. UNF was supposed to contend in the A-Sun this season, but it has struggled again with a sub .500 record (9-13). A disappointing as that sounds, a closer look shows what Driscoll is really up, which is getting his team battle tested to make a run at a conference championship and ticket to The Big Dance. The Ospreys have played the 11th toughest non-conference schedule in the nation according to KenPom. UNF has been willing to travel anywhere to play anyone that will have it, with tough road games at Dayton, Penn State, Florida, Minnesota, Florida State and Auburn. Three straight losses and this seemingly short price is going to make the Ospreys look like an easy fade target today, but we are sticking with our guns. When these two teams played just two weeks ago, the Ospreys were a seven point favorite and they won easily 87-66. Today, UNF is the pooch everywhere, except Pinnacle, which is the sharpest book on the planet. Pinny has taken a position in this game and so are we, North Florida gets the call.
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North Florida +100 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)