Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:15 AM EST.
12:00 PM EST. What do we have here? The 14-4 Horned Frogs (9-1 at home) are spotting what looks like an extremely cheap price in their own barn to a 11-7 squad that has played just four road games and is 2-2 in the road with victories over Arkansas and Georgia (big deal, right?). To make matters worse for the Gators, backup forward Keith Stone suffered a season-ending ACL injury, thus Mike White now deploys three freshmen in the starting lineup. That begs the question -- why the f**k are the Horned Frogs priced so cheap here?
We’re strongly suggesting that the books do not like what they see in the Horned Frogs, who played a weak non-conference schedule and that lost outright to Lipscomb. When conference play started, TCU barely got by Baylor (85-81) before losing to both Kansas and Oklahoma. TCU’s other two victories in the Big-12 were against a West Virginia team that has been badly exposed more than once and also against Texas by just four points in their last game. Texas went cold for two different stretches for about four minutes in each half otherwise we’d be discussing another TCU loss.
Florida’s strength of schedule (SOS) ranks 18th in the country while TCU’s SOS ranks 150th. Florida was a 3½-point pooch at Mississippi St very recently (10 days ago) and now they’re the same price against TCU? That’s true value. Incidentally, the Gators lost by three at Miss St. Prior to playing at Miss St., the Gators hosted the #1 team in the country, Tennessee, and the books had the Vols as a -4 point favorite, which is basically the same price the Gators are getting against TCU here. The Gators have signatures wins and signature losses (of there is such a thing). They played a very challenging non-conference schedule, and while they lost all four of their toughest games, they come well prepared now. It’s always tough when you start a freshman point guard, but Andrew Nembhard (7.3 points, 5.8 assists) has shown he is capable of handling that responsibility and Florida is building its identity around defense (eight nationally in efficiency) and controlling pace (331st in tempo). That’s the kind of style that can get you a few ugly wins on the road. TCU is an overrated and overvalued program that has appeal today based on misleading records for both sides and the oddsmakers have set a number here that prompts us to move in hard on the money line. Gators outright it is.
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#609 Florida +155 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.10)