Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:15 AM EST.
2:00 PM EST. Western Michigan was projected to struggle in 2018-19 and that preseason prediction has come to fruition. The Broncos are just 6-13 and 0-6 to begin conference play, which is not a surprise when you consider they lost their franchise player in Steve Hawkins. While the rest of the teams in the MAC returned most of their key players, WMU is young and ill-equipped to compete with its conference brothers and it shows in the standings. There is no shame in a team playing a meat grinder of a schedule and coming up short, but that is not the case with these Broncos, as they've played just the 227th most difficult schedule in the nation according to KenPom. This game with rival Eastern Michigan might look like a battle between two struggling schools, but these sides could not be further from each other on the expectation spectrum, which is why we're looking hard at the Eagles this afternoon.
Eastern Michigan was supposed to contend in the MAC and was predicted to be one of the top teams in the West division, but it is just 8-11 and 2-4 since conference play began. While the Eagles troubles are no doubt disappointing, a closer look shows that they have taken their lumps by playing the toughest non-conference schedule of any MAC team (11th according to KenPom). EMU has played the likes of Duke, Kansas, TCU and of course Buffalo (twice). A double-digit loss to Bowling Green last time out is holding more weight than it should be, but that is often the case in a market that often over values recent results over an entire season's body of work. We were on the Eagles as a small favorite that day and although we ripped up our ticket, we will not let up here. There is money to be made with these Eagles and a correction is likely coming to their poor fortune, as EMU is a much better squad than its record indicates. We're sticking with it and so should you.
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#641 Eastern Michigan -1 -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)