Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:45 AM EST.
4:00 PM EST. Memphis is one of the hottest teams in the American after ripping off wins in six of its last seven games, but the Tigers haven't been on the court since an 83-79 win over Tulane last Sunday. Any steam Memphis had been building could be lost to time, but that's not going to stop the market from pouncing on what looks like an easy winner. The Tigers are notably the number one scoring team in the nation and this is a market that puts a premium on points. However, with that offensive touch comes a deficiency on the defensive end that sees Memphis giving up more points than any other team in the AAC. That victory over the Green Wave looks fine in the win column, but the Tigers didn't play particularly well after nearly giving up a 15-point halftime lead and getting outrebounded 48-35. If the Tigers are as slopping today as they were against Tulane, the result against these Mustangs is likely to be much different.
SMU is coming off a double-digit loss to #17 Houston on Wednesday but that’s just a result. What sticks out to us is that the Mustangs were favored in that contest. That’s significant and now, they are taking back a price while also taking a step down in competition. SMU had some unfortunate luck in that came against the Cougars, as it lost senior guard Jarrey Foster, who reinjured the left knee that he had torn his ACL in last season. The Mustangs will be without Foster today, but we are a big believer in the "next man up" philosophy and that somebody on that SMU bench is going to be jacked to step up and contribute. There is also the “overreaction” to a significant injury in play here. Trust us that the oddsmakers are aware of it. Being in the underdog role should suit the Mustangs much better than that of the betting favorite and in a close game such as this, free throws could be the difference, which would favor SMU, as they are cleaning up at the charity stripe the last three games by hitting 90.9% of its freebies. Memphis, on the other hand, is a poor performer in that department converting just 70.8% of those chances. Because of that, we'll put these points in our pocket, as it's unlikely that even if Memphis does have a late lead, it doesn't have the horses to pull away. A Mustang victory is tempting but we’ll take the points and play the Mustangs on the money line is a couple of parlays.
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#683 SMU +3 -109 (Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)