Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 2:45 PM EST.
9:00 PM EST. Our attack on the Red Raiders will not stop despite our ripping up our tickets when we wagered against them on Saturday at Texas. That win in Austin was a big monkey off Texas Tech's back, as it was the school's first win on the Longhorns home court in over two decades. TTU is now 15-1, which is the second-best start in program history, but we cannot ignore its incredibly weak non-conference schedule. The Red Raiders have feasted on the fat with a list of non-Big 12 opponents that would make Rick Pitino blush, as it ranks 340 of 353 graded schools in America. Much has been made about the Red Raiders nation-leading scoring defense, but even when you factor in the often harsh Big 12 portion of their games, the Red Raiders still have a strength of schedule that ranks in the 200s (208). The question we have to ask is if Texas Tech's value inflated because their resume is littered with trash and our answer is "yes." If we were ready to fade them as a pooch in Austin on Saturday, we're certainly going to "stick with it" and continue our attack, as the Red Raiders move to the role of the betting favorite.
While TTU is the focus of our attack, Iowa State provides us with some quality competition to back, as the Cyclones lead their conference in scoring at 79.8 points per game. ISU is one of the best-unranked teams in the nation and KenPom has them pegged as the #17 school despite it being dropped from both mainstream polls this week. Recent results are often overvalued in those superficial polls and so we can use the Cyclones absence from the Top 25 to our advantage here, as their stock is down after dropping back-to-back games to Baylor (73-70) and Kansas State (58-57). Both were very close, but the voters are fickle and quickly forgot the five-game win streak ISU had gone on before those bumps in the road. This is a "what have you done for me lately" market, and the Cyclones 17-point beat down of then #5 Kansas just 11 days ago isn't carrying nearly as much weight as it should be. Just to give you an idea of how far its price has fallen, ISU was favored over those Jayhawks, as it was at Oklahoma State, at Baylor and in that last second loss to Kansas State on Saturday. Now, the Cyclones are taking back a nice pile of points against this bloated host. The Red Raiders may fancy themselves defensive specialists, but they cannot go shot-for-shot with the Cyclones. This is a game ISU can win and we're not going to miss out at mearly 2-1 odds if it does.
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#819 Iowa State +190 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.80)