Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 12:30 PM EST.
9:00 PM EST. The Boilermakers took their shot at the #5 team in the nation on Tuesday night and got a rude awakening about what it takes to be on top after getting whacked 77-59 at Michigan State. That was Purdue's third road loss to ranked competition with its other defeats coming at Florida State and Michigan. The Boilermakers also dropped a neutral site decision to #8 Virginia Tech but they have played the fifth toughest schedule in America according to KenPom. That pedestrian 9-6 record with all those losses has the Boilermakers stock dropping and we’re the beneficiaries here. Although Purdue is just 9-6, it was projected to contend in the Big Ten with ESPN predicting that the Boilermakers would finish third behind the two Michigan schools. The Boilermakers appeal may be lessened because they will be without junior center Evan Boudreaux, who has started the last four games, but they still have Matt Haarms on the bench and freshman Trevion Williams, who is coming off a double-double against the Spartans. The Badgers meanwhile, were not expected to bounce back as quick as they have, which has us looking at a classic "buy low, sell high" situation.
Due to it being so easy to overvalue recent results, the Badgers are going to have a ton of appeal here after they thumped Penn State last Sunday 71-52 and are on the verge of heading back into the Top 25. Wisconsin currently sits 26th and 27th in the Coaches and AP Polls respectively. The Badgers have long been a fixture in the market after multiple NCAA Tournament runs and it doesn't take long for these blue blood programs to see their stock rise at an inflated rate. Despite its 11-4 record, Wisconsin does not pass the eye test. We've watched them play a bunch this season and they are not an impressive team. The Badgers laid eggs against Minnesota and Western Kentucky in their last two games prior to their route of the Nittany Lions. As a favorite against a better team than they are, the Badgers are great fade material besides that, we cannot overstate enough how vital this game is to the Boilermakers tournament résumé. The table is set for an upset and we’re on it.
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Purdue +130 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.60)