#745 Austin Peay @ SOUTH FLORIDA
#745 Austin Peay +108 over SOUTH FLORIDA

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +108 BET 365 +105 SportsInteraction +110 5DIMES +108

Posted at 1:45 PM EST.

7:00 PM EST. We’re always on the lookout for unrecognized programs taking back small prices against credible teams from credible conferences because the oddsmakers could have set a bigger number and not swayed a single bet but chose not to here. Why? You should ask yourself that question before pulling the trigger in USF.

South Florida plays in the AAC, a conference that includes some pretty significant mid-majors like Temple, UConn, Memphis, Cincinnati and Wichita State among others. The AAC is always well-represented at the Big Dance while the OVC is a one-bid conference and the only time that one-bid gets exposure is in March. We mention this because it influences the line. Conferences matter and it’s something we can try and exploit.

South Florida is 1-0 after beating Alabama A&M, 80-63. Head coach Brian Gregory took over in South Florida last season for Orlando Antigua. Antigua never did anything of note for the program and Gregory was left with a lot of work ahead of him to get this program competitive again. Gregory is a product of the Tom Izzo coaching tree but he takes over a program that was left in shambles by the previous coaching staff. Gregory is out scouring every junior college and making a recruiting to every transfer he can find on the market but make no mistake that the Bulls are in the midst of a full-fledged rebuild and have a young team with not much experience. They are going to struggle mightily this year under the theory of -- in order to have a successful rebuild, one must tear it all down before you can build it back up. Do not let the names of the conferences cloud your judgement here, as we’re getting the superior team at a price.

Austin Peay finished the 2017-2018 season with 19-15 record. Austin Peay returns eight players, adds a grad transfer, and brings in a 7’0” 240 pound freshman to go along with another 7’0” 240 pound sophomore. The Governors are 1-1 to start the year with an expected win over Oakland City and an expected loss against Mississippi State, which is one of our focuses here. Mississippi State is ranked #18 in the country and  Austin Peay was competitive for most of the night against them. They even pulled to 60-50 after a 3-pointer with 13:59 left but the Bulldogs responded with an 11-3 run to put the game away. After a first season which featured a third-place turnaround and Ohio Valley Conference Coach of the Year honors, Matt Figger has the Govs in position to win this conference outright and earn an automatic bid. Tonight begins the longest stretch of road games in program history—a 30-day, seven-game, four-state, two-country jaunt from Nov. 9-Dec. 8. "It's a schedule that will challenge us to learn to play on the road," Figger said. We like that attitude very much and we love that this is a very winnable game in the first leg of said trip. There will be high motivation for the Govs to get off to a great start and that’s precisely how we’ll play it.

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Our Pick

#745 Austin Peay +108 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.16)